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Climate change will impact the value and optimal adoption of residential rooftop solar - Nature Climate Change (Apr 18) |
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Apr 18 · Rooftop solar adoption is critical for residential decarbonization and hinges on its value to households. Climate change will probably affect the value of rooftop solar through impacts on rooftop solar generation and cooling demand, but no studies have quantified this effect. In this study, we quantified household-level effects of climate change on rooftop solar value and techno-economically optimal capacity by integrating empirical demand data for over 2,000 US households across 17 cities, household-level simulation and optimization models, and downscaled weather data for historic and future climates. We found that climate change will increase the value of rooftop solar to ... Read more ...
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Climate damage projections beyond annual temperature - Nature Climate Change (Apr 16) |
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Apr 16 · Estimates of global economic damage from climate change assess the effect of annual temperature changes. However, the roles of precipitation, temperature variability and extreme events are not yet known. Here, by combining projections of climate models with empirical dose–response functions translating shifts in temperature means and variability, rainfall patterns and extreme precipitation into economic damage, we show that at +3?°C global average losses reach 10% of gross domestic product, with worst effects (up to 17%) in poorer, low-latitude countries. Relative to annual temperature damage, the additional impacts of projecting variability and extremes are smaller and dominated by ... Read more ...
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Revisiting Copenhagen climate mitigation targets - Nature Climate Change (Apr 15) |
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Apr 15 · Many economies set climate mitigation targets for 2020 at the 2009 15th Conference of the Parties conference of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Copenhagen. Yet no retrospective review of the implementation and actual mitigation associated with these targets has materialized. Here we track the national CO2 emissions from both territory and consumption (trade adjusted) perspectives to assess socioeconomic factors affecting changes in emissions. Among the 34 countries analysed, 12 failed to meet their targets (among them Portugal, Spain and Japan) and 7 achieved the target for territorial emissions, albeit with carbon leakage through international trade to ... Read more ...
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Climate change-driven cooling can kill marine megafauna at their distributional limits - Nature Climate Change (Apr 14) |
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Apr 14 · The impacts on marine species from secular warming and heatwaves are well demonstrated; however, the impacts of extreme cold events are poorly understood. Here we link the death of organisms from 81 species to an intense cold upwelling event in the Agulhas Current, and show trends of increasing frequency and intensification of upwelling in the Agulhas Current and East Australian Current. Using electronic tagging, we illustrate the potential impacts of upwelling events on the movement behaviour of bull sharks Carcharhinus leucas, including alterations of migratory patterns and maintenance of shallower dive profiles when transiting through upwelling cells. Increasing upwelling could ... Read more ...
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Frugivores enhance potential carbon recovery in fragmented landscapes - Nature Climate Change (Apr 14) |
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Apr 14 · Forest restoration is fundamental to overcoming biodiversity crises and climate change. In tropical forests, animals can improve forest recovery as they disperse >70% of tree species. However, representing animals in restoration and climate change policies remains challenging because a quantitative assessment of their contribution to forest and carbon recovery is lacking. Here we used individual-based models to assess frugivore-mediated seed rain in open areas along a fragmentation gradient. Movements of large birds were limited in landscapes with <40% forest cover, although small birds continued to disperse seeds. Large birds disperse seeds of late-successional species with ... Read more ...
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Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity modulated by phytoplankton feedback under global warming - Nature Climate Change (Apr 10) |
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Apr 10 · The effects of bio-optical feedback through chlorophyll on future tropical cyclone (TC) activity are not well understood. Here we use Earth system model simulations with the biogeochemical feedback turned on and off to investigate the influence of chlorophyll changes on projections of TCs over the western North Pacific (WNP). An increase in chlorophyll in the tropical eastern Pacific and a decrease in the tropical western Pacific lead to a La Niña-like sea surface temperature warming. This pattern plays a crucial role in enhancing the genesis potential index over the southeastern WNP by 10.16% through strengthening of the Walker and local Hadley circulations. The enhanced genesis ... Read more ...
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Diverging hydrological sensitivity among tropical basins - Nature Climate Change (Apr 8) |
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Apr 8 · The three tropical basins each have unique roles in the global climate system. The main mechanism by which tropical oceans affect remote climate is the latent heating of local precipitation. Here we report major differences in hydrological sensitivity (precipitation change per unit surface warming) among tropical basins. Specifically, the Pacific hydrological sensitivity is several times as large as that of the Indian basin, while the Atlantic hydrological sensitivity is negative. This results from a thermodynamic amplification of the existing spatial unevenness in relative humidity, with the wettest basin getting wetter and the driest basin getting drier. The diverging basin ... Read more ...
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Antarctic meteorites threatened by climate warming - Nature Climate Change (Apr 7) |
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Apr 7 · More than 60% of meteorite finds on Earth originate from Antarctica. Using a data-driven analysis that identifies meteorite-rich sites in Antarctica, we show climate warming causes many extraterrestrial rocks to be lost from the surface by melting into the ice sheet. At present, approximately 5,000 meteorites become inaccessible per year (versus ~1,000 finds per year) and, independent of the emissions scenario, ~24% will be lost by 2050, potentially rising to ~76% by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario.
T. F. Johnson, A. P. Beckerman, … R. P. Freckleton
Wei-Ping Chan, Jonathan Lenoir, … Sheng-Feng Shen
Jonas Preine, Jens Karstens, … Dimitrios ... Read more ...
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Temperature optima of a natural diatom population increases as global warming proceeds - Nature Climate Change (Apr 7) |
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Apr 7 · Studies in laboratory-based experimental evolution have demonstrated that phytoplankton species can rapidly adapt to higher temperatures. However, adaptation processes and their pace remain largely unknown under natural conditions. Here, by comparing resurrected Skeletonema marinoi strains from the Baltic Sea during the past 60?years, we show that modern S. marinoi have increased their temperature optima by 1?°C. With the increasing ability to grow in higher temperatures, growth rates in cold water decreased. Modern S. marinoi modified their valve:girdle ratio under warmer temperatures, which probably increases nutrient uptake ability. This was supported by the upregulation of ... Read more ...
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Model-based financial regulations impair the transition to net-zero carbon emissions - Nature Climate Change (Apr 1) |
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Apr 1 · Investments via the financial system are essential for fostering the green transition. However, the role of existing financial regulations in influencing investment decisions is understudied. Here we analyse data from the European Banking Authority to show that existing financial accounting frameworks might inadvertently be creating disincentives for investments in low-carbon assets. We find that differences in the provision coverage ratio indicate that banks must account for nearly double the loan loss provisions for lending to low-carbon sectors as compared with high-carbon sectors. This bias is probably the result of basing risk estimates on historical data. We show that the ... Read more ...
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Ageing population and green space dynamics for climate change adaptation in Southeast Asia - Nature Climate Change (Mar 28) |
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Mar 28 · Climate change adaptation efforts are challenged by rapid population ageing and thus an increased proportion of vulnerable individuals. Despite its importance for adaptation planning, the link between ageing demographics and climate adaptation, particularly green infrastructure development, remains unexplored. Here we employ high-resolution satellite images and the difference-in-differences framework to assess the spatiotemporal relationship between ageing demographics and green space coverage change patterns across 26,885 Southeast Asian communities over the past two decades. We find that cities with an increased concentration of elderly residents exhibit greater vulnerability due ... Read more ...
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Global corporate tax competition challenges climate change mitigation - Nature Climate Change (Mar 27) |
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Mar 27 · Many countries have cut their corporate tax rates in the past decades to attract foreign investment. To prevent this, a global minimum tax policy was approved by OECD countries in 2021. Global changes in corporate tax rates could reshape production and investment networks while impacting welfare and global emission patterns. Here we develop a theoretical multi-country multi-industry general equilibrium model and show that global corporate tax competition during 2005–2016 would increase global carbon emissions and shift more emissions to developing economies. Implementing a global minimum tax rate of 15% would reduce global carbon emissions and effectively decrease the developing ... Read more ...
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Expert review of the science underlying nature-based climate solutions - Nature Climate Change (Mar 20) |
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Mar 20 · Viable nature-based climate solutions (NbCS) are needed to achieve climate goals expressed in international agreements like the Paris Accord. Many NbCS pathways have strong scientific foundations and can deliver meaningful climate benefits but effective mitigation is undermined by pathways with less scientific certainty. Here we couple an extensive literature review with an expert elicitation on 43 pathways and find that at present the most used pathways, such as tropical forest conservation, have a solid scientific basis for mitigation. However, the experts suggested that some pathways, many with carbon credit eligibility and market activity, remain uncertain in terms of their ... Read more ...
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Global trend of methane abatement inventions and widening mismatch with methane emissions - Nature Climate Change (Mar 18) |
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Mar 18 · Substantially reducing methane emissions is the fastest way to repress near-term warming and is an essential prerequisite for reaching the 1.5?°C target. However, knowledge about the global invention trend, sectoral and national distribution and international diffusion of methane-targeted abatement technologies (MTATs) remains limited. On the basis of patent data, we identify more than 175,000 MTAT inventions applied between 1990 and 2019 by 133 countries or dependent territories. Our results revealed that after sustained growth of more than fourfold, the number of global high-quality MTAT inventions declined by 3.5% annually from 2010 to 2019. The sectoral and national-level ... Read more ...
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Historical impacts of grazing on carbon stocks and climate mitigation opportunities - Nature Climate Change (Mar 14) |
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Mar 14 · Grazing has been associated with contrasting effects on soil carbon stocks at local scales, but accurate global assessments of its net impact are lacking. Here we conducted a meta-analysis of 1,473 soil carbon observations from grazing studies to quantify global changes in soil carbon stocks due to grazing practices. Our analysis shows that grazing has reduced soil carbon stocks at 1-m depth by 46?±?13 PgC over the past 60?years. The interplay between grazing intensity and environmental factors explains global variations in soil carbon changes. Maps of optimal grazing intensity indicate that implementing grazing management on 21 million km2 of grazing lands, mainly through ... Read more ...
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The emerging human influence on the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature - Nature Climate Change (Mar 14) |
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Mar 14 · Gaining insight into anthropogenic influence on seasonality is of scientific, economic and societal importance. Here we show that a human-caused signal in the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) has emerged from the noise of natural variability. Geographical patterns of changes in SST seasonal cycle amplitude (SSTAC) reveal two distinctive features: an increase at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes related to mixed-layer depth changes and a robust dipole pattern between 40°?S and 55°?S that is mainly driven by surface wind changes. The model-predicted pattern of SSTAC change is identifiable with high statistical confidence in four observed SST products and in 51 ... Read more ...
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Groundwater recharge is sensitive to changing long-term aridity - Nature Climate Change (Mar 11) |
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Mar 11 · Sustainable groundwater use relies on adequate rates of groundwater recharge, which are expected to change with climate change. However, climate impacts on recharge remain uncertain due to a paucity of measurements of recharge trends globally. Here we leverage the relationship between climatic aridity and long-term recharge measurements at 5,237 locations globally to identify regions where recharge is most sensitive to changes in climatic aridity. Recharge is most sensitive to climate changes in regions where potential evapotranspiration slightly exceeds precipitation, meaning even modest aridification can substantially decrease groundwater recharge. Future climate-induced recharge ... Read more ...
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Aligning renewable energy expansion with climate-driven range shifts - Nature Climate Change (Mar 7) |
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Mar 7 · Fossil fuel dependence can be reduced, in part, by renewable energy expansion. Increasingly, renewable energy siting seeks to avoid significant impacts on biodiversity but rarely considers how species ranges will shift under climate change. Here we undertake a systematic literature review on the topic and overlay future renewable energy siting maps with the ranges of two threatened species under future climate scenarios to highlight this potential conflict.
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Deforestation poses deleterious effects to tree-climbing species under climate change - Nature Climate Change (Mar 4) |
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Mar 4 · Habitat loss poses a major threat to global biodiversity. Many studies have explored the potential damages of deforestation to animal populations but few have considered trees as thermoregulatory microhabitats or addressed how tree loss might impact the fate of species under climate change. Using a biophysical approach, we explore how tree loss might affect semi-arboreal diurnal ectotherms (lizards) under current and projected climates. We find that tree loss can reduce lizard population growth by curtailing activity time and length of the activity season. Although climate change can generally promote population growth for lizards, deforestation can reverse these positive effects ... Read more ...
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Climate threats to coastal infrastructure and sustainable development outcomes - Nature Climate Change (Feb 29) |
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Feb 29 · Climate hazards pose increasing threats to development outcomes across the world’s coastal regions by impacting infrastructure service delivery. Using a high-resolution dataset of 8.2 million households in Bangladesh’s coastal zone, we assess the extent to which infrastructure service disruptions induced by flood, cyclone and erosion hazards can thwart progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Results show that climate hazards potentially threaten infrastructure service access to all households, with the poorest being disproportionately threatened in 69% of coastal subdistricts. Targeting adaptation to these climatic threats in one-third (33%) of the most vulnerable ... Read more ...
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