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Revisiting Copenhagen climate mitigation targets - Nature Climate Change (Apr 15) |
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Apr 15 · Many economies set climate mitigation targets for 2020 at the 2009 15th Conference of the Parties conference of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in Copenhagen. Yet no retrospective review of the implementation and actual mitigation associated with these targets has materialized. Here we track the national CO2 emissions from both territory and consumption (trade adjusted) perspectives to assess socioeconomic factors affecting changes in emissions. Among the 34 countries analysed, 12 failed to meet their targets (among them Portugal, Spain and Japan) and 7 achieved the target for territorial emissions, albeit with carbon leakage through international trade to ... Read more ...
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Climate change-driven cooling can kill marine megafauna at their distributional limits - Nature Climate Change (Apr 14) |
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Apr 14 · The impacts on marine species from secular warming and heatwaves are well demonstrated; however, the impacts of extreme cold events are poorly understood. Here we link the death of organisms from 81 species to an intense cold upwelling event in the Agulhas Current, and show trends of increasing frequency and intensification of upwelling in the Agulhas Current and East Australian Current. Using electronic tagging, we illustrate the potential impacts of upwelling events on the movement behaviour of bull sharks Carcharhinus leucas, including alterations of migratory patterns and maintenance of shallower dive profiles when transiting through upwelling cells. Increasing upwelling could ... Read more ...
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Frugivores enhance potential carbon recovery in fragmented landscapes - Nature Climate Change (Apr 14) |
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Apr 14 · Forest restoration is fundamental to overcoming biodiversity crises and climate change. In tropical forests, animals can improve forest recovery as they disperse >70% of tree species. However, representing animals in restoration and climate change policies remains challenging because a quantitative assessment of their contribution to forest and carbon recovery is lacking. Here we used individual-based models to assess frugivore-mediated seed rain in open areas along a fragmentation gradient. Movements of large birds were limited in landscapes with <40% forest cover, although small birds continued to disperse seeds. Large birds disperse seeds of late-successional species with ... Read more ...
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Western North Pacific tropical cyclone activity modulated by phytoplankton feedback under global warming - Nature Climate Change (Apr 10) |
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Apr 10 · The effects of bio-optical feedback through chlorophyll on future tropical cyclone (TC) activity are not well understood. Here we use Earth system model simulations with the biogeochemical feedback turned on and off to investigate the influence of chlorophyll changes on projections of TCs over the western North Pacific (WNP). An increase in chlorophyll in the tropical eastern Pacific and a decrease in the tropical western Pacific lead to a La Niña-like sea surface temperature warming. This pattern plays a crucial role in enhancing the genesis potential index over the southeastern WNP by 10.16% through strengthening of the Walker and local Hadley circulations. The enhanced genesis ... Read more ...
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Diverging hydrological sensitivity among tropical basins - Nature Climate Change (Apr 8) |
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Apr 8 · The three tropical basins each have unique roles in the global climate system. The main mechanism by which tropical oceans affect remote climate is the latent heating of local precipitation. Here we report major differences in hydrological sensitivity (precipitation change per unit surface warming) among tropical basins. Specifically, the Pacific hydrological sensitivity is several times as large as that of the Indian basin, while the Atlantic hydrological sensitivity is negative. This results from a thermodynamic amplification of the existing spatial unevenness in relative humidity, with the wettest basin getting wetter and the driest basin getting drier. The diverging basin ... Read more ...
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Antarctic meteorites threatened by climate warming - Nature Climate Change (Apr 7) |
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Apr 7 · More than 60% of meteorite finds on Earth originate from Antarctica. Using a data-driven analysis that identifies meteorite-rich sites in Antarctica, we show climate warming causes many extraterrestrial rocks to be lost from the surface by melting into the ice sheet. At present, approximately 5,000 meteorites become inaccessible per year (versus ~1,000 finds per year) and, independent of the emissions scenario, ~24% will be lost by 2050, potentially rising to ~76% by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario.
T. F. Johnson, A. P. Beckerman, … R. P. Freckleton
Wei-Ping Chan, Jonathan Lenoir, … Sheng-Feng Shen
Jonas Preine, Jens Karstens, … Dimitrios ... Read more ...
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Temperature optima of a natural diatom population increases as global warming proceeds - Nature Climate Change (Apr 7) |
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Apr 7 · Studies in laboratory-based experimental evolution have demonstrated that phytoplankton species can rapidly adapt to higher temperatures. However, adaptation processes and their pace remain largely unknown under natural conditions. Here, by comparing resurrected Skeletonema marinoi strains from the Baltic Sea during the past 60?years, we show that modern S. marinoi have increased their temperature optima by 1?°C. With the increasing ability to grow in higher temperatures, growth rates in cold water decreased. Modern S. marinoi modified their valve:girdle ratio under warmer temperatures, which probably increases nutrient uptake ability. This was supported by the upregulation of ... Read more ...
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Model-based financial regulations impair the transition to net-zero carbon emissions - Nature Climate Change (Apr 1) |
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Apr 1 · Investments via the financial system are essential for fostering the green transition. However, the role of existing financial regulations in influencing investment decisions is understudied. Here we analyse data from the European Banking Authority to show that existing financial accounting frameworks might inadvertently be creating disincentives for investments in low-carbon assets. We find that differences in the provision coverage ratio indicate that banks must account for nearly double the loan loss provisions for lending to low-carbon sectors as compared with high-carbon sectors. This bias is probably the result of basing risk estimates on historical data. We show that the ... Read more ...
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Ageing population and green space dynamics for climate change adaptation in Southeast Asia - Nature Climate Change (Mar 28) |
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Mar 28 · Climate change adaptation efforts are challenged by rapid population ageing and thus an increased proportion of vulnerable individuals. Despite its importance for adaptation planning, the link between ageing demographics and climate adaptation, particularly green infrastructure development, remains unexplored. Here we employ high-resolution satellite images and the difference-in-differences framework to assess the spatiotemporal relationship between ageing demographics and green space coverage change patterns across 26,885 Southeast Asian communities over the past two decades. We find that cities with an increased concentration of elderly residents exhibit greater vulnerability due ... Read more ...
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Global corporate tax competition challenges climate change mitigation - Nature Climate Change (Mar 27) |
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Mar 27 · Many countries have cut their corporate tax rates in the past decades to attract foreign investment. To prevent this, a global minimum tax policy was approved by OECD countries in 2021. Global changes in corporate tax rates could reshape production and investment networks while impacting welfare and global emission patterns. Here we develop a theoretical multi-country multi-industry general equilibrium model and show that global corporate tax competition during 2005–2016 would increase global carbon emissions and shift more emissions to developing economies. Implementing a global minimum tax rate of 15% would reduce global carbon emissions and effectively decrease the developing ... Read more ...
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Expert review of the science underlying nature-based climate solutions - Nature Climate Change (Mar 20) |
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Mar 20 · Viable nature-based climate solutions (NbCS) are needed to achieve climate goals expressed in international agreements like the Paris Accord. Many NbCS pathways have strong scientific foundations and can deliver meaningful climate benefits but effective mitigation is undermined by pathways with less scientific certainty. Here we couple an extensive literature review with an expert elicitation on 43 pathways and find that at present the most used pathways, such as tropical forest conservation, have a solid scientific basis for mitigation. However, the experts suggested that some pathways, many with carbon credit eligibility and market activity, remain uncertain in terms of their ... Read more ...
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Global trend of methane abatement inventions and widening mismatch with methane emissions - Nature Climate Change (Mar 18) |
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Mar 18 · Substantially reducing methane emissions is the fastest way to repress near-term warming and is an essential prerequisite for reaching the 1.5?°C target. However, knowledge about the global invention trend, sectoral and national distribution and international diffusion of methane-targeted abatement technologies (MTATs) remains limited. On the basis of patent data, we identify more than 175,000 MTAT inventions applied between 1990 and 2019 by 133 countries or dependent territories. Our results revealed that after sustained growth of more than fourfold, the number of global high-quality MTAT inventions declined by 3.5% annually from 2010 to 2019. The sectoral and national-level ... Read more ...
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Historical impacts of grazing on carbon stocks and climate mitigation opportunities - Nature Climate Change (Mar 14) |
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Mar 14 · Grazing has been associated with contrasting effects on soil carbon stocks at local scales, but accurate global assessments of its net impact are lacking. Here we conducted a meta-analysis of 1,473 soil carbon observations from grazing studies to quantify global changes in soil carbon stocks due to grazing practices. Our analysis shows that grazing has reduced soil carbon stocks at 1-m depth by 46?±?13 PgC over the past 60?years. The interplay between grazing intensity and environmental factors explains global variations in soil carbon changes. Maps of optimal grazing intensity indicate that implementing grazing management on 21 million km2 of grazing lands, mainly through ... Read more ...
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The emerging human influence on the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature - Nature Climate Change (Mar 14) |
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Mar 14 · Gaining insight into anthropogenic influence on seasonality is of scientific, economic and societal importance. Here we show that a human-caused signal in the seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature (SST) has emerged from the noise of natural variability. Geographical patterns of changes in SST seasonal cycle amplitude (SSTAC) reveal two distinctive features: an increase at Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes related to mixed-layer depth changes and a robust dipole pattern between 40°?S and 55°?S that is mainly driven by surface wind changes. The model-predicted pattern of SSTAC change is identifiable with high statistical confidence in four observed SST products and in 51 ... Read more ...
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Groundwater recharge is sensitive to changing long-term aridity - Nature Climate Change (Mar 11) |
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Mar 11 · Sustainable groundwater use relies on adequate rates of groundwater recharge, which are expected to change with climate change. However, climate impacts on recharge remain uncertain due to a paucity of measurements of recharge trends globally. Here we leverage the relationship between climatic aridity and long-term recharge measurements at 5,237 locations globally to identify regions where recharge is most sensitive to changes in climatic aridity. Recharge is most sensitive to climate changes in regions where potential evapotranspiration slightly exceeds precipitation, meaning even modest aridification can substantially decrease groundwater recharge. Future climate-induced recharge ... Read more ...
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Aligning renewable energy expansion with climate-driven range shifts - Nature Climate Change (Mar 7) |
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Mar 7 · Fossil fuel dependence can be reduced, in part, by renewable energy expansion. Increasingly, renewable energy siting seeks to avoid significant impacts on biodiversity but rarely considers how species ranges will shift under climate change. Here we undertake a systematic literature review on the topic and overlay future renewable energy siting maps with the ranges of two threatened species under future climate scenarios to highlight this potential conflict.
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Deforestation poses deleterious effects to tree-climbing species under climate change - Nature Climate Change (Mar 4) |
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Mar 4 · Habitat loss poses a major threat to global biodiversity. Many studies have explored the potential damages of deforestation to animal populations but few have considered trees as thermoregulatory microhabitats or addressed how tree loss might impact the fate of species under climate change. Using a biophysical approach, we explore how tree loss might affect semi-arboreal diurnal ectotherms (lizards) under current and projected climates. We find that tree loss can reduce lizard population growth by curtailing activity time and length of the activity season. Although climate change can generally promote population growth for lizards, deforestation can reverse these positive effects ... Read more ...
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Climate threats to coastal infrastructure and sustainable development outcomes - Nature Climate Change (Feb 29) |
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Feb 29 · Climate hazards pose increasing threats to development outcomes across the world’s coastal regions by impacting infrastructure service delivery. Using a high-resolution dataset of 8.2 million households in Bangladesh’s coastal zone, we assess the extent to which infrastructure service disruptions induced by flood, cyclone and erosion hazards can thwart progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Results show that climate hazards potentially threaten infrastructure service access to all households, with the poorest being disproportionately threatened in 69% of coastal subdistricts. Targeting adaptation to these climatic threats in one-third (33%) of the most vulnerable ... Read more ...
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Flexible foraging behaviour increases predator vulnerability to climate change - Nature Climate Change (Feb 26) |
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Feb 26 · Higher temperatures are expected to reduce species coexistence by increasing energetic demands. However, flexible foraging behaviour could balance this effect by allowing predators to target specific prey species to maximize their energy intake, according to principles of optimal foraging theory. Here we test these assumptions using a large dataset comprising 2,487 stomach contents from six fish species with different feeding strategies, sampled across environments with varying prey availability over 12?years in Kiel Bay (Baltic Sea). Our results show that foraging shifts from trait- to density-dependent prey selectivity in warmer and more productive environments. This behavioural ... Read more ...
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Offshoring emissions through used vehicle exports - Nature Climate Change (Feb 19) |
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Feb 19 · Policies to reduce transport emissions often overlook the international flow of used vehicles. We quantify the rate at which used vehicles generated CO2 and pollution for all used vehicles exported from Great Britain - a globally leading used vehicle exporter - across 2005–2021. Destined for low–middle-income countries, exported vehicles fail roadworthiness standards and, even under extremely optimistic 'functioning-as-new’ assumptions, generate at least 13–53% more emissions than scrapped or on-road vehicles.
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Transport is the largest emitting sector of greenhouse gases, accounting for a quarter to a third of all emissions in developed countries1,2 with serious ... Read more ...
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Municipal finance shapes urban climate action and justice - Nature Climate Change (Feb 15) |
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Feb 15 · Implementing climate policies and programmes in cities requires substantial investments that inevitably entangle climate action with urban climate finance - the mechanisms and practices city governments use to pay for climate efforts. Here we use US cities as a case study to examine how climate finance impacts, and is impacted by, the pursuit of urban climate action and climate justice. Drawing on 34 expert interviews, we show how municipal financial decisions and budgetary practices are shaping how, when and for whom cities are responding to climate change. We demonstrate how public spending decisions are intertwined with the logics of debt financing and examine the impacts of ... Read more ...
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Boreal–Arctic wetland methane emissions modulated by warming and vegetation activity - Nature Climate Change (Feb 13) |
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Feb 13 · Wetland methane (CH4) emissions over the Boreal–Arctic region are vulnerable to climate change and linked to climate feedbacks, yet understanding of their long-term dynamics remains uncertain. Here, we upscaled and analysed two decades (2002–2021) of Boreal–Arctic wetland CH4 emissions, representing an unprecedented compilation of eddy covariance and chamber observations. We found a robust increasing trend of CH4 emissions (+8.9%) with strong inter-annual variability. The majority of emission increases occurred in early summer (June and July) and were mainly driven by warming (52.3%) and ecosystem productivity (40.7%). Moreover, a 2?°C temperature anomaly in 2016 led to the highest ... Read more ...
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Globally representative evidence on the actual and perceived support for climate action - Nature Climate Change (Feb 8) |
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Feb 8 · Mitigating climate change necessitates global cooperation, yet global data on individuals’ willingness to act remain scarce. In this study, we conducted a representative survey across 125 countries, interviewing nearly 130,000 individuals. Our findings reveal widespread support for climate action. Notably, 69% of the global population expresses a willingness to contribute 1% of their personal income, 86% endorse pro-climate social norms and 89% demand intensified political action. Countries facing heightened vulnerability to climate change show a particularly high willingness to contribute. Despite these encouraging statistics, we document that the world is in a state of pluralistic ... Read more ...
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Methane oxidation minimizes emissions and offsets to carbon burial in mangroves - Nature Climate Change (Feb 7) |
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Feb 7 · Maximizing carbon sequestration in mangroves is part of the global effort to combat the climate crisis. However, methane (CH4) emissions can partially offset carbon sequestration in mangroves. Previous estimates have suggested that CH4 emissions offset organic carbon burial by 20% in mangroves with substantial freshwater inputs and/or in highly impacted mangroves. Here we resolve the magnitude and drivers of the mangrove CH4 offset using multiple isotopic tracers across a latitudinal gradient. CH4 emission offsets were smaller in high-salinity (~7%) than in freshwater-influenced (~27%) mangroves. Carbon sequestration was disproportionally high compared with CH4 emissions in ... Read more ...
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300 years of sclerosponge thermometry shows global warming has exceeded 1.5 °C - Nature Climate Change (Feb 4) |
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Feb 4 · Anthropogenic emissions drive global-scale warming yet the temperature increase relative to pre-industrial levels is uncertain. Using 300?years of ocean mixed-layer temperature records preserved in sclerosponge carbonate skeletons, we demonstrate that industrial-era warming began in the mid-1860s, more than 80?years earlier than instrumental sea surface temperature records. The Sr/Ca palaeothermometer was calibrated against 'modern’ (post-1963) highly correlated (R2?=?0.91) instrumental records of global sea surface temperatures, with the pre-industrial defined by nearly constant (<±0.1?°C) temperatures from 1700 to the early 1860s. Increasing ocean and land-air temperatures ... Read more ...
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A representative survey experiment of motivated climate change denial - Nature Climate Change (Feb 1) |
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Feb 1 · Climate change is arguably one of the greatest challenges today. Although the scientific consensus is that human activities caused climate change, a substantial part of the population downplays or denies human responsibility. In this registered report, we present causal evidence on a potential explanation for this discrepancy: motivated reasoning. We conducted a tailored survey experiment on a broadly representative sample of 4,000 US adults to provide causal evidence on how motivated cognition shapes beliefs about climate change and influences the demand for slanted information. We further explore the role of motives on environmentally harmful behaviour. Contrary to our hypotheses, ... Read more ...
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Emergent climate change patterns originating from deep ocean warming in climate mitigation scenarios - Nature Climate Change (Jan 31) |
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Jan 31 · The global oceans absorb most of the surplus heat from anthropogenic warming, but it is unclear how this heat accumulation will affect the Earth’s climate under climate mitigation scenarios. Here we show that this stored heat will be released at a much slower rate than its accumulation, resulting in a robust pattern of surface ocean warming and consequent regional precipitation. The surface ocean warming is pronounced over subpolar to polar regions and the equatorial eastern Pacific where oceans are weakly stratified to allow vigorous heat release from the deep ocean to the surface layer. We also demonstrate that this ocean warming pattern largely explains changes in the ... Read more ...
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Production vulnerability to wheat blast disease under climate change - Nature Climate Change (Jan 31) |
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Jan 31 · Wheat blast is a devastating disease caused by the fungal pathogen Magnaporthe oryzae pathotype Triticum that has spread to both neighbouring and distant countries following its emergence in Brazil in the 1980s. Under climate change conditions, wheat blast is predicted to spread primarily in tropical regions. Here we coupled a wheat crop simulation model with a newly developed wheat blast model, to provide quantitative global estimates of wheat blast vulnerability under current and future climates. Under current climatic conditions, 6.4 million hectares of arable land is potentially vulnerable to wheat blast. A more humid and warmer climate in the future (Representative ... Read more ...
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Intensification of Pacific tropical instability waves over the recent three decades - Nature Climate Change (Jan 24) |
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Jan 24 · Tropical instability waves (TIWs) arise from shear instabilities of equatorial Pacific Ocean currents and are important for the tropical climate and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Yet the long-term evolution of TIW activity under climate change remains unclear due to the difficulty in estimating equatorial current velocity. Here we use in situ, satellite altimeter and sea surface temperature observations along with a realistic eddy-resolving ocean simulation to show that TIW activity has intensified in the central equatorial Pacific at ~12?±?6% per decade over the recent three decades. The extended satellite data and the ocean model simulation show that the increased TIW activity ... Read more ...
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Towards an increasingly biased view on Arctic change - Nature Climate Change (Jan 21) |
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Jan 21 · The Russian invasion of Ukraine hampers the ability to adequately describe conditions across the Arctic, thus biasing the view on Arctic change. Here we benchmark the pan-Arctic representativeness of the largest high-latitude research station network, INTERACT, with or without Russian stations. Excluding Russian stations lowers representativeness markedly, with some biases being of the same magnitude as the expected shifts caused by climate change by the end of the century.
Mika Rantanen, Matti Kämäräinen, … Juha Aalto
Rodrigo Aguayo, Jorge León-Muñoz, … Martin Jacques-Coper
A. Kosanic, I. Kavcic, … S. Harrison
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As a result of the Russian attack on ... Read more ...
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Warming causes contrasting spider behavioural responses by changing their prey size spectra - Nature Climate Change (Jan 21) |
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Jan 21 · Predators may adapt to global warming via behavioural plasticity. However, empirical evidence showing such adaptations in terrestrial ecosystems is scarce. Here we report behavioural shifts that alter the web mesh size of two dominant predatory spider species in response to experimental warming in an alpine meadow field. Experimental large open-top chambers increased the mean annual air temperature by 0.6?°C, resulting in a decrease in the web mesh size of the large spider (-43.6%), and an increase in the web mesh size of the small spider (+79.8%). Structural equation models indicated that the changes in mesh size and web area were primarily the result of warming-induced changes in ... Read more ...
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Eddy activity in the Arctic Ocean projected to surge in a warming world - Nature Climate Change (Jan 9) |
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Jan 9 · Ocean eddies play a critical role in climate and marine life. In the rapidly warming Arctic, little is known about how ocean eddy activity will change because existing climate models cannot resolve Arctic Ocean mesoscale eddies. Here, by employing a next-generation global sea ice–ocean model with kilometre-scale horizontal resolution in the Arctic, we find a surge of eddy kinetic energy in the upper Arctic Ocean, tripling on average in a four-degree-warmer world. The driving mechanism behind this surge is an increase in eddy generation due to enhanced baroclinic instability. Despite the decline of sea ice, eddy killing (a process in which eddies are dampened by sea ice and winds) ... Read more ...
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Hydrological cycle amplification reshapes warming-driven oxygen loss in the Atlantic Ocean - Nature Climate Change (Jan 7) |
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Jan 7 · The loss of oxygen from the ocean due to warming is not ubiquitous. In the Atlantic Ocean above 1?km depth, there is oxygen loss at subpolar latitudes, but there has been no oxygen loss or gain in the subtropics over the past six decades. Here we show that the amplification of the hydrological cycle, a response to climate change that results in a 'salty-get-saltier, fresh-get-fresher’ sea surface salinity pattern, influences ocean ventilation and introduces a spatial pattern in the rate of climate change-driven oxygen loss in an Earth system model. A salinification enhances ventilation of (already salty) mode waters that outcrop in the subtropics and opposes warming-driven oxygen ... Read more ...
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African rice cultivation linked to rising methane - Nature Climate Change (Jan 3) |
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Jan 3 · Africa has been identified as a major driver of the current rise in atmospheric methane, and this has been attributed to emissions from wetlands and livestock. Here we show that rapidly increasing rice cultivation is another important source, and we estimate that it accounts for 7% of the current global rise in methane emissions. Continued rice expansion to feed a rapidly growing population should be considered in climate change mitigation goals.
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Climate warming restructures food webs and carbon flow in high-latitude ecosystems - Nature Climate Change (Jan 2) |
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Jan 2 · Rapid warming of high-latitude ecosystems is increasing microbial activity and accelerating the decomposition of permafrost soils. This proliferation of microbial energy could restructure high-latitude food webs and alter carbon cycling between above-ground and below-ground habitats. We used stable isotope analysis (d13C) of amino acids to trace carbon flow through food webs exposed to warming and quantified changes in the assimilation of microbial carbon by Arctic tundra and boreal forest consumers. From 1990 to 2021, small mammals in boreal forests exhibited a significant reduction in the use of plant-based 'green’ food webs and an increased use of microbially mediated 'brown’ ... Read more ...
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The social costs of hydrofluorocarbons and the benefits from their expedited phase-down - Nature Climate Change (Jan 2) |
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Jan 2 · Hydrofluorocarbons are a potent greenhouse gas, yet there remains a lack of quantitative estimates of their social cost. The present study addresses this gap by directly calculating the social cost of hydrofluorocarbons (SC-HFCs) using perturbations of exogenous inputs to integrated assessment models. We first develop a set of direct estimates of the SC-HFCs using methods currently adopted by the United States Government and then derive updated estimates that incorporate recent advances in climate science and economics. We compare our estimates with commonly used social cost approximations based on global warming potentials to show that the latter is a poor proxy for direct ... Read more ...
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Responses of soil organic carbon to climate extremes under warming across global biomes - Nature Climate Change (Dec 21) |
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Dec 21 · The impact of more extreme climate conditions under global warming on soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics remains unquantified. Here we estimate the response of SOC to climate extreme shifts under 1.5?°C warming by combining a space-for-time substitution approach and global SOC measurements (0–30?cm soil). Most extremes (22 out of 33 assessed extreme types) exacerbate SOC loss under warming globally, but their effects vary among ecosystems. Only decreasing duration of cold spells exerts consistent positive effects, and increasing extreme wet days exerts negative effects in all ecosystems. Temperate grasslands and croplands negatively respond to most extremes, while positive responses ... Read more ...
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Increase in MJO predictability under global warming - Nature Climate Change (Dec 19) |
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Dec 19 · The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a dominant source of subseasonal atmospheric variability in the tropics and significantly impacts global weather and climate predictability. Changes in its activity and predictability due to human-induced global climate change have profound implications for future global weather prediction. Here we investigate changes in MJO predictability in reanalysis and climate model data and find that MJO predictability has increased over the past century. This increase can be attributed to anthropogenic warming and continues during the twenty-first century in projections. The increased predictability is accompanied by stronger MJO amplitude, more regular ... Read more ...
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Recent irreversible retreat phase of Pine Island Glacier - Nature Climate Change (Dec 3) |
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Dec 3 · Pine Island Glacier (PIG), a part of the West Antarctic marine ice sheet, has recently undergone substantial changes including speed up, retreat and thinning. Theoretical arguments and modelling work suggest that marine ice sheets can become unstable and undergo irreversible retreat. Here, we use an ice-flow model validated by observational data to show that a rapid PIG retreat in the 1970s from a subglacial ridge to an upstream ice plain was self-enhancing and irreversible. The results suggest that by the early 1970s, the retreat of PIG had reached a point beyond which its original position at the ridge could not be recovered, even during subsequent periods of cooler ocean ... Read more ...
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