Changing weather patterns induced by climate change are contributing to shifts in the location of terrorist activity, according to new research. An exploratory study led by extremism expert Dr Jared Dmello, from the University of Adelaide's School of Social Sciences, found some climatological variables affected terrorist activity in India. "Suitability analyses indicate that all the climatological variables tested -- temperature, precipitation, and elevation -- relate to shifting patterns of terrorist activity," says Dr Dmello. "Urban centres have increasingly grown in population density, particularly in spaces with favourable climates, and some of the more remote areas once used by extremists have experienced such increasingly dynamic climates that they are no longer fit for human habitation, forcing these groups to migrate elsewhere." It was not only the intensity of these climatological variables that led to terrorists moving to new locales, this shifting of terrorist activity was also seasonal. "In this study, we focus on attack location, but the data also suggests other forms of extremist behaviour, such as training location, are likely shifting in response to climate change as well." The study, published in the Journal of Applied Security Research, concentrated on terrorist activity in India between 1998-2017, a period during which there were 9096 terrorist incidents recorded by the Global Terrorism Database. "Average temperatures in India reached record highs during our 20-year study period," said Dr Dmello. "This time frame represents a broad enough range to demonstrate climate change, while also availing of the most recent reliable data that covers both the climate change and extremism dimensions for the country." This new and evolving understanding of how climate change affects patterns of terrorism is important knowledge for governments across the world, including Australia's, to inform national... |