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Recent irreversible retreat phase of Pine Island Glacier - Nature Climate Change (Dec 3) |
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Dec 3 · Pine Island Glacier (PIG), a part of the West Antarctic marine ice sheet, has recently undergone substantial changes including speed up, retreat and thinning. Theoretical arguments and modelling work suggest that marine ice sheets can become unstable and undergo irreversible retreat. Here, we use an ice-flow model validated by observational data to show that a rapid PIG retreat in the 1970s from a subglacial ridge to an upstream ice plain was self-enhancing and irreversible. The results suggest that by the early 1970s, the retreat of PIG had reached a point beyond which its original position at the ridge could not be recovered, even during subsequent periods of cooler ocean ... Read more ...
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The soil microbiome governs the response of microbial respiration to warming across the globe - Nature Climate Change (Dec 3) |
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Dec 3 · The sensitivity of soil microbial respiration to warming (Q10) remains a major source of uncertainty surrounding the projections of soil carbon emissions to the atmosphere as the factors driving Q10 patterns across ecosystems have been assessed in isolation from each other. Here we report the results of a warming experiment using soils from 332 sites across all continents and major biomes to simultaneously evaluate the main drivers of global Q10 patterns. Compared with biochemical recalcitrance, mineral protection, substrate quantity and environmental factors, the soil microbiome (that is, microbial biomass and bacterial taxa) explained the largest portion of variation in Q10 ... Read more ...
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Evidence lacking for a pending collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation - Nature Climate Change (Nov 30) |
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Nov 30 · arising from N. Boers Nature Climate Change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01097-4 (2021)
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References
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Reply to: Evidence lacking for a pending collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation - Nature Climate Change (Nov 30) |
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Nov 30 · replying to X. Chen & K.-K. Tung Nature Climate Change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01877-0 (2023)
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Fast upper-level jet stream winds get faster under climate change - Nature Climate Change (Nov 29) |
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Nov 29 · Earth’s upper-level jet streams influence the speed and direction of travel of weather systems and commercial aircraft, and are linked to severe weather occurrence. Climate change is projected to accelerate the average upper-level jet stream winds. However, little is known about how fast (>99th percentile) upper-level jet stream winds will change. Here we show that fast upper-level jet stream winds get faster under climate change using daily data from climate model projections across a hierarchy of physical complexity. Fast winds also increase ~2.5 times more than the average wind response. We show that the multiplicative increase underlying the fast-get-faster response follows ... Read more ...
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Inequality repercussions of financing negative emissions - Nature Climate Change (Nov 29) |
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Nov 29 · Negative emissions technologies are attracting the interest of investors in the race to make them effective and profitable. When deployed at scale, they will be financed through public funds, reducing the fiscal space for a socially inclusive climate transition. Moreover, if the private sector owns negative emissions technologies, potentially large profits would disproportionally benefit investors and equity holders. Here we quantify the inequality repercussions of direct air capture of CO2 in a 1.5?°C scenario, using a regional integrated assessment model that features within-country income heterogeneity. We find that, under a single carbon market, financing negative emissions ... Read more ...
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Community forest governance and synergies among carbon, biodiversity and livelihoods - Nature Climate Change (Nov 22) |
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Nov 22 · Forest landscape restoration has emerged as a key strategy to sequester atmospheric carbon and conserve biodiversity while providing livelihood co-benefits for indigenous peoples and local communities. Using a dataset of 314 forest commons in human-dominated landscapes in 15 tropical countries in Africa, Asia and Latin America, we examine the relationships among carbon sequestered in above-ground woody biomass, tree species richness and forest livelihoods. We find five distinct clusters of forest commons, with co-benefits and trade-offs on multiple dimensions. The presence of a formal community management association and local participation in rule-making are consistent predictors ... Read more ...
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Limitations of reanalyses for detecting tropical cyclone trends - Nature Climate Change (Nov 20) |
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Nov 20 · arising from S. S. Chand et al. Nature Climate Change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01388-4 (2022)
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Reply to: Limitations of reanalyses for detecting tropical cyclone trends - Nature Climate Change (Nov 20) |
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Nov 20 · replying to K. Emanuel Nature Climate Change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01879-y (2023)
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Mycorrhizal type regulates trade-offs between plant and soil carbon in forests - Nature Climate Change (Nov 15) |
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Nov 15 · Forest ecosystems store ~80% of the carbon in terrestrial ecosystems, but their long-term carbon sequestration depends partly on how plant biomass and soil carbon stocks will respond to global changes. Although the stimulation of plant growth by global change drivers has been widely observed, the response of soil carbon stock to global changes remains uncertain. Here we conducted a meta-analysis on experimental observations of plant and soil carbon-related data worldwide. We found that plant biomass and soil carbon stock increased more under elevated CO2 than under nitrogen deposition and warming. Under nitrogen deposition and warming, soil carbon stock depended on mycorrhizal ... Read more ...
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Little evidence that Amazonian rainforests are approaching a tipping point - Nature Climate Change (Nov 9) |
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Nov 9 · arising from C. A. Boulton et al. Nature Climate Change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01287-8 (2022)
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Reply to: Little evidence that Amazonian rainforests are approaching a tipping point - Nature Climate Change (Nov 9) |
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Nov 9 · replying to S. Tao et al. Nature Climate Change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01853-8 (2023)
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Extratropical forests increasingly at risk due to lightning fires - Nature Geoscience - Nature Climate Change (Nov 8) |
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Nov 8 · Fires can be ignited by people or by natural causes, which are almost exclusively lightning strikes. Discriminating between lightning and anthropogenic fires is paramount when estimating impacts of changing socioeconomic and climatological conditions on fire activity. Here we use reference data of fire ignition locations, cause and burned area from seven world regions in a machine-learning approach to obtain a global attribution of lightning and anthropogenic ignitions as dominant fire ignition sources. We show that 77% (uncertainty expressed as one standard deviation?=?8%) of the burned area in extratropical intact forests currently stems from lightning and that these areas will ... Read more ...
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Greenland-wide accelerated retreat of peripheral glaciers in the twenty-first century - Nature Climate Change (Nov 8) |
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Nov 8 · The long-term response of Greenland’s peripheral glaciers to climate change is widely undocumented. Here we use historical aerial photographs and satellite imagery to document length fluctuations of >1,000 land-terminating peripheral glaciers in Greenland over more than a century. We find that their rate of retreat over the last two decades is double that of the twentieth century, indicating a ubiquitous transition into a new, accelerated state of downwasting.
Main
Peripheral glaciers and ice caps (GICs) that are distinct from the Greenland Ice Sheet constitute just ~4% of Greenland’s total glaciated area but contribute a disproportionally large portion (~14%) of the ... Read more ...
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Distributional labour challenges and opportunities for decarbonizing the US power system - Nature Climate Change (Nov 2) |
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Nov 2 · The transition towards a low-carbon power system presents challenges and opportunities for the workforce with important implications for just transitions. Studies of these distributional labour impacts could benefit from tighter linkages between energy and employment modelling. Here, we couple a power-sector optimization model, an employment impact model and demographic databases to understand state-level job characteristics and the societal implications of low-carbon transitions in the US. Although decarbonization brings consistent job growth, it heightens the need for investment in human capital and supply chain restructuring. Major fossil fuel-producing states need to prepare for ... Read more ...
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Thunderstorm straight line winds intensify with climate change - Nature Climate Change (Nov 2) |
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Nov 2 · Straight line winds (SLWs), or non-tornadic thunderstorm winds, are causing widespread damage in many regions around the world. These powerful gusts are associated with strong downdraughts in thunderstorms, rear inflow jets and mesovortices. Despite their significance, our understanding of climate change effects on SLWs remains limited. Here, focusing on the central USA, a global hot spot for SLWs, I use observations, high-resolution modelling and theoretical considerations to show that SLWs have intensified over the past 40 years. Theoretical considerations suggest that SLWs should intensify at a rate of?~7.5% °C-1, yet the observed rates show a more pronounced increase of?~13% ... Read more ...
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Assessing the size and uncertainty of remaining carbon budgets - Nature Climate Change (Oct 30) |
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Oct 30 · The remaining carbon budget (RCB), the net amount of CO2 humans can still emit without exceeding a chosen global warming limit, is often used to evaluate political action against the goals of the Paris Agreement. RCB estimates for 1.5?°C are small, and minor changes in their calculation can therefore result in large relative adjustments. Here we evaluate recent RCB assessments by the IPCC and present more recent data, calculation refinements and robustness checks that increase confidence in them. We conclude that the RCB for a 50% chance of keeping warming to 1.5?°C is around 250?GtCO2 as of January 2023, equal to around six years of current CO2 emissions. For a 50% chance of 2?°C ... Read more ...
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Climate change exacerbates nutrient disparities from seafood - Nature Climate Change (Oct 30) |
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Oct 30 · Seafood is an important source of bioavailable micronutrients supporting human health, yet it is unclear how micronutrient production has changed in the past or how climate change will influence its availability. Here combining reconstructed fisheries databases and predictive models, we assess nutrient availability from fisheries and mariculture in the past and project their futures under climate change. Since the 1990s, availabilities of iron, calcium and omega-3 from seafood for direct human consumption have increased but stagnated for protein. Under climate change, nutrient availability is projected to decrease disproportionately in tropical low-income countries that are already ... Read more ...
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Forest composition change and biophysical climate feedbacks across boreal North America - Nature Climate Change (Oct 23) |
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Oct 23 · Deciduous tree cover is expected to increase in North American boreal forests with climate warming and wildfire. This shift in composition has the potential to generate biophysical cooling via increased land surface albedo. Here we use Landsat-derived maps of continuous tree canopy cover and deciduous fractional composition to assess albedo change over recent decades. We find, on average, a small net decrease in deciduous fraction from 2000 to 2015 across boreal North America and from 1992 to 2015 across Canada, despite extensive fire disturbance that locally increased deciduous vegetation. We further find near-neutral net biophysical change in radiative forcing associated with ... Read more ...
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Unavoidable future increase in West Antarctic ice-shelf melting over the twenty-first century - Nature Climate Change (Oct 23) |
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Oct 23 · Ocean-driven melting of floating ice-shelves in the Amundsen Sea is currently the main process controlling Antarctica’s contribution to sea-level rise. Using a regional ocean model, we present a comprehensive suite of future projections of ice-shelf melting in the Amundsen Sea. We find that rapid ocean warming, at approximately triple the historical rate, is likely committed over the twenty-first century, with widespread increases in ice-shelf melting, including in regions crucial for ice-sheet stability. When internal climate variability is considered, there is no significant difference between mid-range emissions scenarios and the most ambitious targets of the Paris Agreement. ... Read more ...
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A global assessment of actors and their roles in climate change adaptation - Nature Climate Change (Oct 12) |
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Oct 12 · An assessment of the global progress in climate change adaptation is urgently needed. Despite a rising awareness that adaptation should involve diverse societal actors and a shared sense of responsibility, little is known about the types of actors, such as state and non-state, and their roles in different types of adaptation responses as well as in different regions. Based on a large n-structured analysis of case studies, we show that, although individuals or households are the most prominent actors implementing adaptation, they are the least involved in institutional responses, particularly in the global south. Governments are most often involved in planning and civil society in ... Read more ...
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The decrease in ocean heat transport in response to global warming - Nature Climate Change (Oct 12) |
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Oct 12 · The ocean is taking up additional heat but how this affects ocean circulation and heat transport is unclear. Here, using coupled model intercomparison project phase 5/6 (CMIP5/6) climate projections, we show a future decrease in poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) across all Northern Hemisphere latitudes and south of 10°?S. Most notably, the CMIP5/6 multimodel mean reduction in poleward OHT for the Atlantic at 26.5°?N and Indo-Pacific at 20°?S is 0.093–0.304?PW and 0.097–0.194?PW, respectively, dependent on scenario and CMIP phase. These changes in OHT are driven by decline in overturning circulation dampened by upper ocean warming. In the Southern Ocean, the reduction in poleward ... Read more ...
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Free riding in climate protests - Nature Climate Change (Oct 9) |
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Oct 9 · Climate protests are an important driver for ambitious climate policies. However, it is still unknown how individual protest participation decisions depend on each other. Exploiting the unique opportunity of the Third Global Climate Strike, we conducted multi-wave population surveys with 1,510 people in the four largest German cities. With a randomized information intervention, we changed turnout expectations of a subgroup of respondents and measured the impact on the probability to join the local protest event. Our findings provide causal evidence for strategic interdependence in protest participation decisions among members of the general public rather than among a movement’s core ... Read more ...
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Warming and lateral shift of the Gulf Stream from in situ observations since 2001 - Nature Climate Change (Oct 9) |
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Oct 9 · As the poleward-flowing western boundary current of the North Atlantic ocean, the Gulf Stream plays a key role in the climate system. Here we show that from 2001 to 2023, the Gulf Stream west of 68°?W has experienced both surface-intensified warming due to heat uptake at a rate exceeding the global average and a bulk lateral shift towards its cooler shoreward side at a rate of about 5?±?2?km per decade. The Gulf Stream west of 68°?W now has an O(10)-m-thick surface layer of warmer (by?~?1?°C) and lighter (by?~?0.3?kg?m-3) water, contributing to increased upper ocean stratification. Our results rely on over 25,000 temperature and salinity profiles collected by autonomous profiling ... Read more ...
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Detecting long-term Arctic surface water changes - Nature Climate Change (Oct 5) |
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Oct 5 · arising from Elizabeth E. Webb et al. Nature Climate Change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01455-w (2022)
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Reply to: Detecting long-term Arctic surface water changes - Nature Climate Change (Oct 5) |
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Oct 5 · replying to I. Olthof et al. Nature Climate Change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01836-9 (2023)
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The global costs of extreme weather that are attributable to climate change - Nature Communications - Nature Climate Change (Sep 29) |
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Sep 29 · Extreme weather events lead to significant adverse societal costs. Extreme Event Attribution (EEA), a methodology that examines how anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions had changed the occurrence of specific extreme weather events, allows us to quantify the climate change-induced component of these costs. We collect data from all available EEA studies, combine these with data on the socio-economic costs of these events and extrapolate for missing data to arrive at an estimate of the global costs of extreme weather attributable to climate change in the last twenty years. We find that US\(\$\) 143 billion per year of the costs of extreme events is attributable to climatic change. ... Read more ...
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Reproducibility crisis and gravitation towards a consensus in ocean acidification research - Nature Climate Change (Sep 25) |
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Sep 25 · Reproducibility is a persistent concern in science and recently attracts considerable attention in assessing biological responses to ocean acidification. Here we track the reproducibility of the harmful effects of ocean acidification on calcification of shell-building organisms by conducting a meta-analysis of 373 studies across 24 years. The pioneering studies tended to report large negative effects, but as other researchers assimilated this research into understanding their biological systems, the size of negative effects declined. Such declines represent a scientific process by which discoveries are initially assimilated and their limitations are subsequently explored. We suggest ... Read more ...
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Soil heat extremes can outpace air temperature extremes - Nature Climate Change (Sep 21) |
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Sep 21 · Quantifying changes in hot temperature extremes is key for developing adaptation strategies. Changes in hot extremes are often determined on the basis of air temperatures; however, hydrology and many biogeochemical processes are more sensitive to soil temperature. Here we show that soil hot extremes are increasing faster than air hot extremes by 0.7?°C per decade in intensity and twice as fast in frequency on average over Central Europe. Furthermore, we identify soil temperature as a key factor in the soil moisture–temperature feedback. During dry and warm conditions, the energy absorbed by the soil is used to warm the soil, increasing the release of sensible heat flux and surface ... Read more ...
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Plant-by-plant decarbonization strategies for the global steel industry - Nature Climate Change (Sep 20) |
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Sep 20 · The critical role of the iron and steel industry in decarbonizing global energy systems calls for refined strategies of climate mitigation. Here, based on a newly developed database of individual iron and steel facilities worldwide, we explore the distinct differences in age-to-capacity ratio and emissions intensity of primary steelmaking plants. We customize regional cost-effective decarbonization strategies by targeting a certain proportion of plants. We find that the more effective indicator for targeted decarbonization in developing regions is emissions intensity, while for developed countries it is age-to-capacity ratio. Whichever indicator we use to target plants, the strategy ... Read more ...
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Damage function uncertainty increases the social cost of methane and nitrous oxide - Nature Climate Change (Sep 14) |
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Sep 14 · The social cost of greenhouse gases (SC-GHGs), indicating marginal damage from GHG emissions, is a valuable and informative metric for policymaking. However, existing social cost estimates for methane (SC-CH4) and nitrous oxide (SC-N2O) have not kept pace with the latest scientific findings in damage functions, climate models and socioeconomic projections. We applied a multimodel assessment framework, incorporating recent advances that are neglected by past studies to re-estimate SC-CH4 and SC-N2O. Models of gross domestic product (GDP) level effects reveal US$2,900 per t-CH4 (in 2020 US dollars) for SC-CH4 and US$49,600 per t-N2O for SC-N2O for the emissions year 2020, indicating a ... Read more ...
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Exposure to international trade lowers green voting and worsens environmental attitudes - Nature Climate Change (Sep 14) |
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Sep 14 · From a political perspective, advancing green agendas in democracies requires obtaining electoral support for parties and candidates proposing green platforms. It is therefore crucial to understand the factors driving green voting and attitudes. Yet, limited research has explored the role of economic determinants in this context. In this study we show that globalization, through the distributional consequences of import competition, is an important determinant of support for parties proposing green platforms. Our analysis covers the United States and 15 countries of Western Europe, over the period 2000–2019, with trade exposure measured at the level of subnational geographic areas. ... Read more ...
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Widespread deoxygenation in warming rivers - Nature Climate Change (Sep 14) |
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Sep 14 · Deoxygenation is commonly observed in oceans and lakes but less expected in shallower, flowing rivers. Here we reconstructed daily water temperature and dissolved oxygen in 580 rivers across the United States and 216 rivers in Central Europe by training a deep learning model using temporal weather and water quality data and static watershed attributes (for example, hydro-climate, topography, land use, soil). Results revealed persistent warming in 87% and deoxygenation in 70% of the rivers. Urban rivers demonstrated the most rapid warming, whereas agricultural rivers experienced the slowest warming but fastest deoxygenation. Mean deoxygenation rates (-0.038?±?0.026?mg?l-1?decade-1) ... Read more ...
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China’s bulk material loops can be closed but deep decarbonization requires demand reduction - Nature Climate Change (Sep 11) |
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Sep 11 · China, as the largest global producer of bulk materials, confronts formidable challenges in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions arising from their production. Yet the emission savings resulting from circular economy strategies, such as improved scrap recovery, more intensive use and lifetime extension, remain underexplored. Here we show that, by 2060, China could source most of its required bulk materials through recycling, partially attributable to a declining population. Province-level results show that, while economic development initially drives up material demand, it also enables closed loops as demand approaches saturation levels. Between now and 2060, improved scrap recovery ... Read more ...
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Upslope migration is slower in insects that depend on metabolically demanding flight - Nature Climate Change (Sep 11) |
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Sep 11 · Climate change is forcing species to migrate to cooler temperatures at higher elevations, yet many taxa are dispersing slower than necessary. One yet-to-be-tested explanation for inadequate migration rates is that high-elevation environments pose physiological barriers to dispersal, particularly in species with high metabolic demands. By synthesizing across >800 species, we find evidence for metabolic constraints: upslope migration is slower in insects that rely on nature’s most expensive locomotor strategy - flight.
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The quandary of detecting the signature of climate change in Antarctica - Nature Climate Change (Sep 7) |
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Sep 7 · Global warming driven by human activities is expected to be accentuated in polar regions compared with the global average, an effect called polar amplification. Yet, for Antarctica, the amplitude of warming is still poorly constrained due to short weather observations and the large decadal climate variability. Using a compilation of 78 ice core records, we provide a high-resolution reconstruction of temperatures over the past 1,000 years for seven regions of Antarctica and direct evidence of Antarctic polar amplification at regional and continental scales. We also show that the amplitude of both natural and forced variability is not captured by the CMIP5 and six model ensemble ... Read more ...
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Arctic soil methane sink increases with drier conditions and higher ecosystem respiration - Nature Climate Change (Aug 31) |
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Aug 31 · Arctic wetlands are known methane (CH4) emitters but recent studies suggest that the Arctic CH4 sink strength may be underestimated. Here we explore the capacity of well-drained Arctic soils to consume atmospheric CH4 using >40,000 hourly flux observations and spatially distributed flux measurements from 4 sites and 14 surface types. While consumption of atmospheric CH4 occurred at all sites at rates of 0.092?±?0.011?mgCH4?m-2?h-1 (mean?±?s.e.), CH4 uptake displayed distinct diel and seasonal patterns reflecting ecosystem respiration. Combining in situ flux data with laboratory investigations and a machine learning approach, we find biotic drivers to be highly important. Soil ... Read more ...
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Climate change exacerbates snow-water-energy challenges for European ski tourism - Nature Climate Change (Aug 28) |
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Aug 28 · Ski tourism is a substantial component of the economy of mountainous regions in Europe and is highly vulnerable to snow scarcity, which is increasing due to climate change. However, the climate change snow supply risk to ski tourism has not been quantified in a consistent way throughout Europe, including the influence and environmental footprint of snowmaking. Here we show that the snow supply risk to ski tourism increases with global warming level, heterogeneously within and across mountain areas and countries. Without snowmaking, 53% and 98% of the 2,234 ski resorts studied in 28 European countries are projected to be at very high risk for snow supply under global warming of 2?°C ... Read more ...
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Sea-ice decline could keep zooplankton deeper for longer - Nature Climate Change (Aug 28) |
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Aug 28 · As Arctic sea ice deteriorates, more light enters the ocean, causing largely unknown effects on the ecosystem. Using an autonomous biophysical observatory, we recorded zooplankton vertical distribution under Arctic sea ice from dusk to dawn of the polar night. Here we show that zooplankton ascend into the under-ice habitat during autumn twilight, following an isolume of 2.4?×?10-4?W?m-2. We applied this trigger isolume to CMIP6 model outputs accounting for incoming radiation after sunset and before sunrise of the polar night. The models project that, in about three decades, the total time spent by zooplankton in the under-ice habitat could be reduced by up to one month, depending on ... Read more ...
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Widespread changes in Southern Ocean phytoplankton blooms linked to climate drivers - Nature Climate Change (Aug 28) |
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Aug 28 · Climate change is expected to elicit widespread alterations to nutrient and light supply, which interact to influence phytoplankton growth and their seasonal cycles. Using 25 years of satellite chlorophyll a data, we show that large regions of the Southern Ocean express significant multi-decadal trends in phenological indices that are typically larger (<50?days?decade–1) than previously reported in modelling studies (<10?days?decade–1). Although regionally dependent, there is an overall tendency for phytoplankton blooms to increase in amplitude, decline in seasonality, initiate later, terminate earlier and have shorter durations, except in the ice, which initiate earlier and ... Read more ...
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