Most recent 40 articles: Nature Climate Change
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Ocean warming as a trigger for irreversible retreat of the Antarctic ice sheet - Nature Climate Change (Sep 19) |
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Sep 19 · Warmer ocean conditions could impact future ice loss from Antarctica due to their ability to thin and reduce the buttressing of laterally confined ice shelves. Previous studies highlight the potential for a cold to warm ocean regime shift within the sub-shelf cavities of the two largest Antarctic ice shelves - the Filchner–Ronne and Ross. However, how this impacts upstream ice flow and mass loss has not been quantified. Here using an ice sheet model and an ensemble of ocean-circulation model sub-shelf melt rates, we show that transition to a warm state in those ice shelf cavities leads to a destabilization and irreversible grounding line retreat in some locations. Once this ocean ... Read more ...
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Carbon dioxide emissions from global overseas coal-fired power plants - Nature Climate Change (Sep 18) |
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Sep 18 · Foreign investments in overseas coal-fired power plants (OCPs) largely impede decarbonization efforts, yet their global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have not been sufficiently quantified. Here we analyse investment data from 908 OCPs worldwide, and then reveal current annual emissions of 0.53?GtCO2?yr-1 and a historical cumulative total of 26?GtCO2. Developed nations account for 78% of these cumulative emissions on the basis of investments, while emissions from developing nations have surged from 8% in 1960 to 39% in 2022. Assuming unchanged policies and technologies, OCPs are projected to contribute an additional 15–30?GtCO2 in cumulative emissions by 2060 directly. Furthermore, ... Read more ...
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Limited net poleward movement of reef species over a decade of climate extremes - Nature Climate Change (Sep 18) |
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Sep 18 · Warming seas are expected to drive marine life poleward. However, few systematic observations confirm movement among entire communities at both warm and cool range edges. We analysed two continent-scale reef monitoring datasets to quantify changes in latitudinal range edges of 662 Australian shallow-water reef fishes and invertebrates over a decade punctuated by climate extremes. Temperate and tropical species both showed little net movement overall, with retreat often balancing expansion across the continent. Within regions, however, range edges shifted ~100?km per decade, on average, in the poleward or equatorward directions expected from warming or cooling. Although some species ... Read more ...
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Disproportionate impact of atmospheric heat events on lake surface water temperature increases - Nature Climate Change (Sep 16) |
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Sep 16 · Hot temperature extremes (HTEs) in the atmosphere can also affect lake surface water temperature, but how this impact changes with global warming is not well understood. Here we use numerical modelling and satellite observations to quantify the contribution of HTEs to variations in summer lake surface water temperature and lake heatwaves in 1,260 water bodies worldwide between 1979 and 2022. Over this time period, HTE duration and cumulative intensity over the studied lakes increased significantly, at average rates of 1.4 days per decade and 0.92?°C days per decade, respectively. Despite only accounting for 7% of the total summer days, HTEs are responsible for 24% of lake surface ... Read more ...
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Rising cause-specific mortality risk and burden of compound heatwaves amid climate change - Nature Climate Change (Sep 16) |
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Sep 16 · Global warming shifts daytime-only heatwaves to nighttime-only and day–night compound heatwaves. However, evidence on the cause-specific burdens of these heatwaves in a changing climate and ageing population is limited. Here, by analysing 1,088,742 non-accidental deaths from 272 Chinese cities, we found that compound heatwaves posed significantly higher cardiopulmonary mortality risks and burdens than daytime-only and nighttime-only heatwaves, particularly for ischaemic stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and regions with high summer temperature variation. Projections suggested substantial increases in compound heatwave-related mortality (4.0–7.6-fold) by the 2090s ... Read more ...
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A focus group study of ethical issues during climate-informed health decision-making - Nature Climate Change (Sep 11) |
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Sep 11 · Healthcare delivery contributes to carbon emissions, exacerbating climate change and its associated health impacts. There is limited understanding of stakeholder views regarding ethical issues at the intersection of health choices and environmental impact. Here we performed a qualitative study involving seven focus groups with 46 participants who were patients and physicians in the northeastern US health systems. Both patients and physicians were amenable to health decisions that are beneficial for the environment and health. A consumptive healthcare system impeded both groups’ assumption of health-related climate responsibilities. Physicians, however, underestimated patients’ ... Read more ...
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Elevated urban energy risks due to climate-driven biophysical feedbacks - Nature Climate Change (Sep 11) |
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Sep 11 · Climate-driven impacts on future urban heating and cooling (H&C) energy demand are critical to sustainable energy planning. Existing global H&C projections are predominantly made without accounting for future two-way biophysical feedbacks between urban climate and H&C use. Here, using a hybrid modelling framework we show that the prevalent degree-days methods misrepresent the magnitude, nonlinearity and uncertainty in the climate-driven projections of H&C energy demand changes due to the missing two-way feedbacks. We find a 220% increase (47% decrease) in cooling (heating) energy demand with amplified uncertainty by 2099 under a very high emission scenario, roughly twice that ... Read more ...
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Fisheries track the future redistribution of marine species - Nature Climate Change (Sep 11) |
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Sep 11 · The redistribution of fish stocks induced by climate change is expected to have global implications for fisheries, particularly the poleward shifts of species. However, the responses of different fishing gears and fleet of countries and their potential attempts to spatially redistribute catches remain unknown. Here, by developing environmental niche models for industrial fisheries of 82 countries and 13 fishing gears, we demonstrate that without management, global fleets are expected to shift poleward by the end of the century. This is driven by polar fishing gears moving to higher Arctic areas and tropical fishing gears expanding both within the tropics and poleward. Most nations, ... Read more ...
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Global patterns and drivers of tropical aboveground carbon changes - Nature Climate Change (Sep 11) |
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Sep 11 · Tropical terrestrial ecosystems play an important role in modulating the global carbon balance. However, the complex dynamics and factors controlling tropical aboveground live biomass carbon (AGC) are not fully understood. Here, using remotely sensed observations, we find a moderate net AGC sink of 0.21?±?0.06?PgC?yr-1 throughout the global tropics from 2010 to 2020. This arises from a gross loss of -1.79?PgC?yr-1 offset by a marked gain of 2.01?±?0.06?PgC?yr-1. Fire emissions in non-forested African shrubland/savanna biomes, coupled with post-fire carbon recovery, substantially dominated the interannual variability of tropical AGC. Fire radiative power was identified as the primary ... Read more ...
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Underestimation of personal carbon footprint inequality in four diverse countries - Nature Climate Change (Sep 11) |
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Sep 11 · Extensive research highlights global and within-country inequality in personal carbon footprints. However, the extent to which people are aware of these inequalities remains unclear. Here we use an online survey distributed across four diverse countries: Denmark, India, Nigeria and the USA, to show widespread underestimation of carbon footprint inequality, irrespective of participants’ country and income segment. Of the 4,003 participants, within each country, 50% of participants were sampled from the top 10% income group. Our results show links between carbon footprint inequality perceptions and climate policy support, but with significant variations observed across the four ... Read more ...
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Climate change will exacerbate land conflict between agriculture and timber production - Nature Climate Change (Aug 28) |
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Aug 28 · Timber and agricultural production must both increase throughout this century to meet rising demand. Understanding how climate-induced shifts in agricultural suitability will trigger competition with timber for productive land is crucial. Here, we combine predictions of agricultural suitability under different climate change scenarios (representative concentration pathways RCP?2.6 and RCP?8.5) with timber-production maps to show that 240–320?Mha (20–26%) of current forestry land will become more suitable for agriculture by 2100. Forestry land contributes 21–27% of new agricultural productivity frontiers (67–105?Mha) despite only occupying 10% of the surface of the land. Agricultural ... Read more ...
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Human-induced borealization leads to the collapse of Bering Sea snow crab - Nature Climate Change (Aug 20) |
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Aug 20 · The abrupt collapse of the Bering Sea snow crab stock can be explained by rapid borealization that is >98% likely to have been human induced. Strongly boreal conditions are ~200 times more likely now (at 1.0–1.5?°C of warming) than in the pre-industrial climate, while strongly Arctic conditions are now expected in only 8% of years. Stakeholders should accelerate adaptation planning for the complete loss of Arctic characteristics in traditional fishing grounds.
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Plant–microbe interactions underpin contrasting enzymatic responses to wetland drainage - Nature Climate Change (Aug 14) |
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Aug 14 · The carbon storage of wetlands is related to inhibited enzyme activity (particularly phenol oxidase) under oxygen-deprived conditions. However, phenol oxidase response to field drainage is highly uncertain, constraining our ability to predict wetland carbon–climate feedbacks. Here, using literature data, laboratory simulations and a pair-wise survey of 30 diverse wetlands experiencing long-term (15–55?years) drainage across China, we show that while short-term drainage generally leads to increased phenol oxidative activity, its response to long-term drainage diverges in Sphagnum versus non-Sphagnum wetlands. In non-Sphagnum wetlands, long-term drainage is linked to increased plant ... Read more ...
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Reducing climate change impacts from the global food system through diet shifts - Nature Climate Change (Aug 12) |
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Aug 12 · How much and what we eat and where it is produced can create huge differences in GHG emissions. On the basis of detailed household-expenditure data, we evaluate the unequal distribution of dietary emissions from 140 food products in 139 countries or areas and further model changes in emissions of global diet shifts. Within countries, consumer groups with higher expenditures generally cause more dietary emissions due to higher red meat and dairy intake. Such inequality is more pronounced in low-income countries. The present global annual dietary emissions would fall by 17% with the worldwide adoption of the EAT-Lancet planetary health diet, primarily attributed to shifts from red ... Read more ...
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Feasibility of peak temperature targets in light of institutional constraints - Nature Climate Change (Aug 11) |
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Aug 11 · Despite faster-than-expected progress in clean energy technology deployment, global annual CO2 emissions have increased from 2020 to 2023. The feasibility of limiting warming to 1.5?°C is therefore questioned. Here we present a model intercomparison study that accounts for emissions trends until 2023 and compares cost-effective scenarios to alternative scenarios with institutional, geophysical and technological feasibility constraints and enablers informed by previous literature. Our results show that the most ambitious mitigation trajectories with updated climate information still manage to limit peak warming to below 1.6?°C ('low overshoot’) with around 50% likelihood. However, ... Read more ...
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Climate change engagement of scientists - Nature Climate Change (Aug 4) |
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Aug 4 · Climate change is one of the biggest threats to humanity. Scientists are well positioned to help address it beyond conducting academic research, yet little is known about their wider engagement with the topic. We investigate scientists’ engagement with climate change using quantitative and qualitative analyses of a large-scale survey (N?=?9,220) across 115 countries, all fields and all career stages. Many scientists already engage in individual lifestyle changes, but fewer engage in advocacy or activism. On the basis of our quantitative and qualitative results, we propose a two-step model of engagement to better understand why. Scientists must first overcome intellectual and ... Read more ...
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Removing development incentives in risky areas promotes climate adaptation - Nature Climate Change (Aug 4) |
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Aug 4 · As natural disasters grow in frequency and intensity with climate change, limiting the populations and properties in harm’s way will be key to adaptation. This study evaluates one approach to discouraging development in risky areas - eliminating public incentives for development, such as infrastructure investments, disaster assistance and federal flood insurance. Using machine learning and matching techniques, we examine the Coastal Barrier Resources System (CBRS), a set of lands where these federal incentives have been removed. We find that the policy leads to lower development densities inside designated areas, increases development in neighbouring areas, reduces flood damages and ... Read more ...
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Just Energy Transition Partnerships and the future of coal - Nature Climate Change (Jul 30) |
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Jul 30 · Recent climate diplomacy efforts have resulted in Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) with South Africa, Indonesia and Vietnam, mobilizing financial support for ambitious decarbonization targets. Here, to assess JETPs’ alignment with global climate targets, we conduct a model-based assessment of JETPs’ energy and emissions targets. Results show greater alignment with a global 1.5?°C trajectory, indicating a promising route for international collaboration to keep Paris Agreement goals within reach.
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Just Energy Transition Partnerships (JETPs) are a novel cooperation format to accelerate the energy transition of developing and emerging economies. JETPs bundle ... Read more ...
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A more quiescent deep ocean under global warming - Nature Climate Change (Jul 25) |
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Jul 25 · The ocean is a magnificent reservoir of kinetic energy possessed by currents at diverse spatio-temporal scales. These currents transport heat and material, regulating the regional and global climate. It is generally thought that large-scale ocean circulations should become more energetic under global warming, especially in the ocean’s upper layer. However, using high-resolution global climate simulations, here we demonstrate that the total ocean kinetic energy is projected to be significantly reduced in a warming climate, despite overall acceleration of large-scale ocean circulations in the upper layer. This reduction is primarily attributed to weakened ocean mesoscale eddies in the ... Read more ...
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Asymmetries in the Southern Ocean contribution to global heat and carbon uptake - Nature Climate Change (Jul 23) |
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Jul 23 · The Southern Ocean provides dominant contributions to global ocean heat and carbon uptake, which is widely interpreted as resulting from its unique upwelling and circulation. Here we show a large asymmetry in these contributions, with the Southern Ocean accounting for 83?±?33% of global heat uptake versus 43?±?3% of global ocean carbon uptake over the historical period in state-of-the-art climate models. Using single radiative forcing experiments, we demonstrate that this historical asymmetry is due to suppressed heat uptake by northern oceans from enhanced aerosol forcing. In future projections, such as SSP2-4.5 where greenhouse gases increasingly dominate radiative forcing, the ... Read more ...
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Cost-effectiveness of natural forest regeneration and plantations for climate mitigation - Nature Climate Change (Jul 23) |
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Jul 23 · Mitigating climate change cost-effectively requires identifying least-cost-per-ton GHG abatement methods. Here, we estimate and map GHG abatement cost (US$ per tCO2) for two common reforestation methods: natural regeneration and plantations. We do so by producing and integrating new maps of implementation costs and opportunity costs of reforestation, likely plantation genus and carbon accumulation by means of natural regeneration and plantations, accounting for storage in harvested wood products. We find natural regeneration (46%) and plantations (54%) would each have lower abatement cost across about half the area considered suitable for reforestation of 138 low- and middle-income ... Read more ...
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Accelerated warming in the North Pacific since 2013 - Nature Climate Change (Jul 22) |
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Jul 22 · Sea surface temperature increase in the global ocean exhibits marked spatial and temporal variations, with warming in the North Pacific significantly higher than in other basins since 2013. This accelerated warming is related to a shoaling of ocean surface mixed-layer depth and is partially dampened by an increase in anomalous net surface heat flux from the ocean. Among heat-flux components, latent heat flux is dominant.
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Opportunities to strengthen Africa’s efforts to track national-level climate adaptation - Nature Climate Change (Jul 18) |
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Jul 18 · Tracking progress towards the Global Goal on Adaptation requires documentation of countries’ intentions, against which future progress can be measured. The extent to which existing national policy documents provide adequate baselines is unclear. We evaluated the adequacy of African Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) (N?=?53) and National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) (N?=?15) against three criteria - coverage, consistency and robustness - mapped to the adaptation cycle. Fifty-three percent of NAPs and 8% of NDCs cover all elements needed for providing sufficient baselines for tracking adaptation progress. Only 40% and 9% of the NAPs and NDCs, respectively, provide consistent links ... Read more ...
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New wheat breeding paradigms for a warming climate - Nature Climate Change (Jul 15) |
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Jul 15 · Plant breeding has been successful in adapting crops worldwide with one of the latest challenges being adaption to warmer days and nights. Taking wheat as a case study, here we show current elite nurseries express a range of levels of heat adaptation. Generally, the higher the selection ratio for yield response under warming, the less stable the yield response across environments. Specifically, less than one-third of genotypes trialled adapted well to the 0.26?°C warming of the last decade, and the phenotypes were stable in only 26% of environments. With continued warming, selection ratio falls 8.5% and stability falls 8.7% for each 1?°C increase in local temperature. Overall, faced ... Read more ...
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Climate-driven deoxygenation of northern lakes - Nature Climate Change (Jun 30) |
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Jun 30 · Oxygen depletion constitutes a major threat to lake ecosystems and the services they provide. Most of the world’s lakes are located >45°?N, where accelerated climate warming and elevated carbon loads might severely increase the risk of hypoxia, but this has not been systematically examined. Here analysis of 2.6?million water quality observations from 8,288 lakes shows that between 1960 and 2022, most northern lakes experienced rapid deoxygenation strongly linked to climate-driven prolongation of summer stratification. Oxygen levels deteriorated most in small lakes (<10?ha) owing to their greater volumetric oxygen demand and surface warming rates, while the largest lakes gained ... Read more ...
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Collapsed upwelling projected to weaken ENSO under sustained warming beyond the twenty-first century - Nature Climate Change (Jun 30) |
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Jun 30 · The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in a warming climate has been studied extensively, but the response beyond 2100 has received little attention. Here, using long-term model simulations, we find that while ENSO variability exhibits diverse changes in the short term, there is a robust reduction in ENSO variability by 2300. Continued warming beyond 2100 pushes sea surface temperature above the convective threshold over the eastern Pacific, causing collapsed mean equatorial upwelling with intensified deep convection. We show that the weakened thermocline feedback due to the collapsed upwelling and increased thermal expansion coefficient, along with enhanced thermodynamic damping, ... Read more ...
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Contrasting fast and slow intertropical convergence zone migrations linked to delayed Southern Ocean warming - Nature Climate Change (Jun 27) |
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Jun 27 · Migrations of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) have significant impacts on tropical climate and society. Here we examine the ITCZ migration caused by CO2 increase using climate model simulations. During the first one to two decades, we find a northward ITCZ displacement primarily related to an anomalous southward atmospheric cross-equatorial energy transport. Over the next hundreds or thousands of years, the ITCZ moves south. This long-term migration is linked to delayed surface warming and reduced ocean heat uptake in the Southern Ocean, which alters the interhemispheric asymmetry of ocean heat uptake and creates a northward atmospheric cross-equatorial energy transport ... Read more ...
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North Atlantic–Pacific salinity contrast enhanced by wind and ocean warming - Nature Climate Change (Jun 27) |
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Jun 27 · High salinities in the Atlantic and low salinities in the Pacific are critical ocean features, impacting ocean circulations and climate. Here, using observational data, we reveal that the Atlantic–Pacific salinity contrast has amplified during the past half-century. Notably, in the 0–800?m, 20°–40°?N band, the Atlantic–Pacific salinity contrast increased by 5.9%?±?0.6% since 1965. A decomposition of heaving and spicing modes suggests vital contributions of wind and ocean warming, in addition to known surface freshwater fluxes. Specifically, ocean surface warming leads to poleward migration of thermocline outcrop zones, while surface wind changes cause upper-layer convergence in ... Read more ...
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Biodiversity buffers the response of spring leaf unfolding to climate warming - Nature Climate Change (Jun 20) |
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Jun 20 · Understanding the sensitivity of spring leaf-out dates to temperature (ST) is integral to predicting phenological responses to climate warming and the consequences for global biogeochemical cycles. While variation in ST has been shown to be influenced by local climate adaptations, the impact of biodiversity remains unknown. Here we combine 393,139 forest inventory plots with satellite-derived ST across the northern hemisphere during 2001–2022 to show that biodiversity greatly affects spatial variation in ST and even surpasses the importance of climate variables. High tree diversity significantly weakened ST, possibly driven by changes in root depth and soil processes. We show that ... Read more ...
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Climate change to exacerbate the burden of water collection on women’s welfare globally - Nature Climate Change (Jun 20) |
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Jun 20 · Climate change is aggravating water scarcity worldwide. In rural households lacking access to running water, women often bear the responsibility for its collection, with adverse effects on their well being through long daily time commitments, physical strain and mental distress. Here we show that rising temperatures will exacerbate this water collection burden globally. Using fixed-effects regression, we analyse the effect of climate conditions on self-reported water collection times for 347 subnational regions across four continents from 1990 to 2019. Historically, a 1?°C temperature rise increased daily water collection times by 4?minutes. Reduced precipitation historically ... Read more ...
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Diminished efficacy of regional marine cloud brightening in a warmer world - Nature Climate Change (Jun 20) |
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Jun 20 · Marine cloud brightening (MCB) is a geoengineering proposal to cool atmospheric temperatures and reduce climate change impacts. As large-scale approaches to stabilize global mean temperatures pose governance challenges, regional interventions may be more attractive near term. Here we investigate the efficacy of regional MCB in the North Pacific to mitigate extreme heat in the Western United States. Under present-day conditions, we find MCB in the remote mid-latitudes or proximate subtropics reduces the relative risk of dangerous summer heat exposure by 55% and 16%, respectively. However, the same interventions under mid-century warming minimally reduce or even increase heat stress ... Read more ...
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Widespread misestimates of greenhouse gas emissions suggest low carbon competence - Nature Climate Change (Jun 20) |
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Jun 20 · As concern with climate change increases, people seek to behave and consume sustainably. This requires understanding which behaviours, firms and industries have the greatest impact on emissions. Here we ask if people are knowledgeable enough to make choices that align with growing sustainability intentions. Across five studies, we (1) demonstrate that accuracy of individuals’ emissions-related estimates is limited, (2) provide evidence that this misestimation is consistent with a cognitive process of attribute substitution and (3) identify conditions that do (and do not) moderate estimation accuracy. Our findings suggest that individuals’ efficacy as consumers, investors and ... Read more ...
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Extreme weather events do not increase political parties' environmental attention - Nature Climate Change (Jun 12) |
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Jun 12 · Exposure to extreme weather events can make people more aware of environmental changes; however, it remains unclear how such events influence politicians’ behaviour. Combining supervised learning algorithms on over 260,000 press releases by European parties with a difference-in-differences design, we find that apart from Green parties, extreme weather events do not increase attention towards environmental issues. This suggests the consequences of climate change might not directly increase political attention.
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Climate change increases the severity and frequency of extreme weather events1. The summer of 2023 - with its dramatic wildfires in Canada and historic ... Read more ...
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A decrease in radiative forcing and equivalent effective chlorine from hydrochlorofluorocarbons - Nature Climate Change (Jun 10) |
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Jun 10 · The Montreal Protocol and its successive amendments have been successful in curbing emissions of ozone-depleting substances and potent greenhouse gases via production/consumption controls. Here we show that the radiative forcing and equivalent effective chlorine from hydrochlorofluorocarbons has decreased from 61.75?mW?m-2 and 321.69?ppt, respectively, since 2021, 5?years before the most recent projected decrease. This important milestone demonstrates the benefits of the Protocol for mitigating climate change and stratospheric ozone layer loss.
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Following evidence that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) released to the atmosphere cause the depletion of stratospheric ozone1, ... Read more ...
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Climate-driven disturbances amplify forest drought sensitivity - Nature Climate Change (Jun 6) |
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Jun 6 · Forests are a major terrestrial carbon sink, but the increasing frequency and intensity of climate-driven disturbances such as droughts, fires and biotic agent outbreaks is threatening carbon uptake and sequestration. Determining how climate-driven disturbances may alter the capacity of forest carbon sinks in a changing climate is crucial. Here we show that the sensitivity of gross primary productivity to subsequent water stress increased significantly after initial drought and fire disturbances in the conterminous United States. Insect outbreak events, however, did not have significant impacts. Hot and dry environments generally exhibited increased sensitivity. Estimated ecosystem ... Read more ...
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Increasing numbers of global change stressors reduce soil carbon worldwide - Nature Climate Change (Jun 6) |
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Jun 6 · Soils support a vast amount of carbon (C) that is vulnerable to climatic and anthropogenic global change stressors (for example, drought and human-induced nitrogen deposition). However, the simultaneous effects of an increasing number of global change stressors on soil C storage and persistence across ecosystems are virtually unknown. Here, using 1,880 surface soil samples from 68 countries across all continents, we show that increases in the number of global change stressors simultaneously exceeding medium–high levels of stress (that is, relative to their maximum levels observed in nature) are negatively and significantly correlated with soil C stocks and mineral association across ... Read more ...
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Reducing sectoral hard-to-abate emissions to limit reliance on carbon dioxide removal - Nature Climate Change (Jun 6) |
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Jun 6 · To reach net-zero greenhouse gas targets, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are required to compensate for residual emissions in the hard-to-abate sectors. However, dependencies on CDR technologies involve environmental, technical and social risks, particularly related to increased land requirements for afforestation and bioenergy crops. Here, using scenarios consistent with the 1.5?°C target, we show that demand and technological interventions can substantially lower emission levels in four hard-to-abate sectors (industry, agriculture, buildings and transport) and reduce reliance on the use of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage. Specifically, demand measures and ... Read more ...
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Accounting for Pacific climate variability increases projected global warming - Nature Climate Change (Jun 4) |
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Jun 4 · Observational constraint methods based on the relationship between the past global warming trend and projected warming across climate models were used to reduce uncertainties in projected warming by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Internal climate variability in the eastern tropical Pacific associated with the so-called pattern effect weakens this relationship and has reduced the observed warming trend over recent decades. Here we show that regressing out this variability before applying the observed global mean warming trend as a constraint results in higher and narrower twenty-first century warming ranges than other methods. Whereas the Intergovernmental Panel on ... Read more ...
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Novel temperatures are already widespread beneath the world’s tropical forest canopies - Nature Climate Change (Jun 2) |
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Jun 2 · Tropical forest biodiversity is potentially at high risk from climate change, but most species reside within or below the canopy, where they are buffered from extreme temperatures. Here, by modelling the hourly below-canopy climate conditions of 300,000 tropical forest locations globally between 1990 and 2019, we show that recent small increases in below-canopy temperature (<1?°C) have led to highly novel temperature regimes across most of the tropics. This is the case even within contiguous forest, suggesting that tropical forests are sensitive to climate change. However, across the globe, some forest areas have experienced relatively non-novel temperature regimes and thus serve ... Read more ...
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