Most recent 40 articles: MIT - Global Change -Publications
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Power sector impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Nov 30) |
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Nov 30 · Abstract: The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is regarded as the most prominent piece of federal climate legislation in the U.S. thus far. This paper investigates potential impacts of IRA on the power sector, which is the focus of many core IRA provisions. We summarize a multi-model comparison of IRA to identify robust findings and variation in power sector investments, emissions, and costs across 11 models of the U.S. energy system and electricity sector.
Our results project that IRA incentives accelerate the deployment of low-emitting capacity, increasing average annual additions by up to 3.2 times current levels through 2035. CO2 emissions reductions from electricity ... Read more ...
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A Large Ensemble Global Dataset for Climate Impact Assessments - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Oct 31) |
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Oct 31 · Abstract: We present a self-consistent, large ensemble, high-resolution global dataset of long-term future climate, which accounts for the uncertainty in climate system response to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and in geographical patterns of climate change. The dataset is developed by applying an integrated spatial disaggregation (SD) - bias-correction (BC) method to climate projections from the MIT Integrated Global System Modeling (IGSM) framework. Four emissions scenarios are considered that represent energy and environmental policies and commitments of potential future pathways, namely, Reference, Paris Forever, Paris 2°C and Paris 1.5°C. The dataset contains nine ... Read more ...
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A comparative analysis of the efficiency, timing, and permanence of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) pathways (Invited) - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Oct 10) |
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Oct 10 · Most emission scenarios consistent with the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5°C include net negative CO2 emissions in the second half of this century, i.e. CO2 removal (CDR) from the atmosphere exceeds CO2 emissions. These pathways differ significantly with regards to their: a) CDR efficiency - the net CO2 removal; b) timing - the potential for net CO2 removal occurring at the right time to meet the net-zero targets; and c) permanence - the net CO2 removal from the atmosphere for a sufficiently long length of time.
Here, we adapted the MONET framework to compare the CDR efficiency, timing, and permanence of a non-exhaustive portfolio of archetypal CDR ... Read more ...
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Anthropogenic emissions of chlorine-containing very short-lived halogenated substances in China - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Oct 6) |
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Oct 6 · Abstract: Unregulated very short-lived halogenated substances (VSLSs) are playing an increasingly important role in global stratospheric ozone depletion as emissions of long-lived ozone-depleting substances such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) decline due to the controls of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. The impacts of VSLSs on the stratospheric ozone layer could be more significant when their emissions are from regions with strong convective pathways from the surface to the stratosphere, such as occur in East and South Asia, compared to other regions.
Dichloromethane (CH2Cl2) and chloroform (CHCl3) are the ... Read more ...
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Global-ocean carbon and biogeochemical response to input from rivers and coastal wetlands - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Oct 6) |
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Oct 6 · Abstract: Large amounts of terrestrial carbon and nutrients are routed to the ocean through the Land-Ocean Aquatic Continuum (LOAC). Once in coastal waters, these terrestrial inputs impact ocean carbon chemistry. Lateral carbon export from rivers has been estimated to be responsible for global-ocean outgassing of roughly 0.45 Pg C yr-1. However, the biogeochemical pathway for this outgassing has not yet been quantified. In this study, we have carried out a set of model sensitivity experiments, in which we introduce terrestrial carbon and nutrients in the ECCO-Darwin global-ocean biogeochemistry state estimate. We compute daily riverine export by combining the GlobalNEWS2.0 watershed ... Read more ...
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Incorporating Below Ground City Textures into Urban Flood Modeling for Enhanced Flood Prediction and Risk Assessment: A Case Study of the MIT CAMPUS - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Oct 6) |
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Oct 6 · Pluvial (rain-driven) flooding poses a significant threat to urban areas worldwide, necessitating accurate flood prediction for effective flood risk adaptation and damage mitigation. This research explores the impact of incorporating below ground city textures, such as basements, garages, and tunnels, into urban flood models on the extent and propagation of surface and subsurface flooding and damages. A high-resolution 1&2D Rain On Mesh (ROM) hydrodynamic flood model for the city of Cambridge was developed. The model integrated various layers of geospatial data and the city's DEM. An extended version of the model, the Basement Model, applies an approach to incorporate below ground ... Read more ...
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Long-term Comparison of NOAA and AGAGE Non-CO2 Trace Gas Observations at Common Sites - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Oct 6) |
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Oct 6 · Abstract: The Advanced Global Atmospheric Gases Experiment (AGAGE) program and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Monitoring Laboratory (GML) maintain some of the longest measurement records of the atmospheric abundances of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and their substitutes, many of which are strong greenhouse gases (GHGs). Several records extend back more than 40 years, and fittingly, Walt Komhyr was involved in the early halocarbon measurements at NOAA in the mid-1970s. For the past 20+ years, comparisons of ozone-depleting substances and non-CO2 greenhouse gas measurements have been carried out and reviewed by project participants for more than ... Read more ...
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Maximizing Air Quality Benefits of Organizational Climate Action: Evidence from Electricity Purchase and Personnel Business Travel - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Oct 6) |
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Oct 6 · Abstract: Organizational decisions to mitigate climate change are often focused solely on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, but also can have multiple sustainability-related impacts. A substantial area of impact from reducing greenhouse gases relates to air quality, where reductions in fossil fuel use can cause health damages locally and regionally. While much research has quantified the air quality benefits of large-scale strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, information about the different impacts of organizational Scope 1–3 emissions on air quality is lacking. We use data from two universities and one multinational corporation based in the northeast U.S. to examine the ... Read more ...
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Modeling Impacts of Wildfires on Soil Thermal and Hydrological and Carbon Dynamics in Northern High Latitudes - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Oct 6) |
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Oct 6 · Abstract: Wildfires significantly affect vegetation, soil thermal and hydrological as well as carbon dynamics. This study uses a process-based biogeochemistry modeling framework that is incorporated with land surface energy balance, soil thermal and hydrological dynamics and their effects on carbon and nitrogen cycling to simulate these dynamics and carbon budget in northern high latitudes. Here we present our model results on North American boreal forests from 1986 to 2020 using satellite-derived burn severity data. We find that fires remove ecosystem carbon through combustion emissions and reduce net ecosystem production, making the ecosystem lose 3.5 Pg C during 1986-2020 and ... Read more ...
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On the Influence of Ocean Sinks and Hydroxyl Radical Changes on Estimated Lifetimes and Emissions of Halogenated Greenhouse Gases - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Oct 6) |
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Oct 6 · Abstract: Halogenated greenhouse gases (such as HCFCs, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6) have global warming potentials thousands to tens of thousands of times greater than carbon dioxide on a per kilogram basis. Estimating the emissions of these gases on a global scale is challenging since direct measurements are unavailable. Instead, they are inferred using measured global atmospheric concentrations and knowledge of their lifetimes. The ocean uptake for halogenated species can impact their lifetimes, but this process has been assumed to be largely negligible in the past. Further, reaction with hydroxyl radicals (OH) is a major atmospheric loss pathway for HCFCs and HFCs. Emission estimations ... Read more ...
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On the Influence of Ocean Sinks and Hydroxyl Radical Changes on Estimated Lifetimes and Emissions of Halogenated Greenhouse Gases - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Oct 6) |
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Oct 6 · Abstract: Halogenated greenhouse gases (such as HCFCs, HFCs, PFCs, and SF6) have global warming potentials thousands to tens of thousands of times greater than carbon dioxide on a per kilogram basis. Estimating the emissions of these gases on a global scale is challenging since direct measurements are unavailable. Instead, they are inferred using measured global atmospheric concentrations and knowledge of their lifetimes. The ocean uptake for halogenated species can impact their lifetimes, but this process has been assumed to be largely negligible in the past. Further, reaction with hydroxyl radicals (OH) is a major atmospheric loss pathway for HCFCs and HFCs. Emission estimations ... Read more ...
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Potential Impacts On Ozone And Climate From A Fleet Of Supersonic Aircraft Under Different Adoption Projections - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Oct 6) |
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Oct 6 · Abstract: With renewed interest in commercial supersonic transport (SST) aircraft due to increased demand for air travel, the environmental impacts on ozone and climate from proposed supersonic fleets need to be analyzed. In this study we have examined two such proposed fleets developed by MIT, flying at Mach 1.6 with a cruise ceiling at 17 km and representing either high or low economic growth. The high scenario burns 43.1 Tg of fuel with 0.39 Tg NOx and 0.14 Tg BC emission whereas the numbers for the low scenario are 9.6 Tg, 0.008 Tg and 0.03 Tg respectively. The UIUC analyses was done using the global climate chemistry model CESM2 – WACCM6 with model top ~140km with comprehensive ... Read more ...
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Practical Steps for Achieving Equity in Water Resources System Planning: Lesotho Irrigation Investment under Climate Change - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Oct 6) |
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Oct 6 · Abstract: In recent years, researchers have begun to propose methods to assess distributive justice under climate change and within adaptation policies. Literature calls for a systematic approach for incorporating distributive justice in water resources planning, and clear guidelines on how best to include such an approach in standard project development and decision-making frameworks. So far, there are inadequate illustrative examples of how this is done in practice, and little connection has been made to financial evaluation and decision metrics commonly used by stakeholders. While stakeholders and decision makers rely on the outcome of financial assessment methods such as Cost ... Read more ...
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Urban Flood Modeling: The Influence of surface run-off modeling and Geospecificity in estimating Flood Extent and Propagation - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Oct 6) |
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Oct 6 · Catchment-based surface runoff models underestimate the duration and extent of flooding as compared to models that incorporate of rain-on-mesh surface runoff modeling in urban drainage analysis. This underestimation of flood extent and duration leads to underestimation of the expected damages and impacts on lifespan of urban infrastructure. Case studies of Cambridge, Massachusetts and Cleveland, Ohio are presented.
Strzepek, K.M. and K. Boukin
Abstract
Spatial results of the ROM simulations, see Figure 1, revealed for a range of design storms flood extents 7-9.5 times greater and depths 1.2-7 times deeper across the city during peak flooding, as compared to the ... Read more ...
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Logs or permits? Forestry land use decisions in an emissions trading scheme - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Sep 26) |
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Sep 26 · Abstract: Negative carbon emissions options are required to meet long-term climate goals in many countries. One way to incentivize these options is by paying farmers for carbon sequestered by forests through an emissions trading scheme (ETS). New Zealand has a comprehensive ETS, which includes incentives for farmers to plant permanent exotic forests.
When there is forestry land use change, the results indicate that the responsiveness of land owners to the carbon price has a measured impact on carbon sequestration. For example, under the fastest land use change scenario, carbon sequestration reaches 29.93 Mt CO2e by 2050 compared to 23.41 Mt CO2e in the no land use change ... Read more ...
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Overlooked Long-Term Atmospheric Chemical Feedbacks Alter the Impact of Solar Geoengineering: Implications for Tropospheric Oxidative Capacity - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Sep 21) |
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Sep 21 · Authors' Summary: Solar geoengineering is a proposed set of technologies to help lessen the impacts of climate change by reducing the amount of sunlight received by the Earth. Stratospheric aerosol injection is a method of solar geoengineering that reduces sunlight by increasing the amount of aerosol particles in the stratosphere, a process which can also cause stratospheric ozone depletion. Nearly all studies of stratospheric aerosol injection have focused exclusively on the direct impacts of increased stratospheric aerosol on climate. However, changes in sunlight also alter the rates of chemical reactions throughout the atmosphere, changing the concentrations of greenhouse gases ... Read more ...
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Air Quality Related Equity Implications of U.S. Decarbonization Policy - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Sep 19) |
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Sep 19 · Abstract: Climate policies that target greenhouse gas emissions can improve air quality by reducing co-emitted air pollutant emissions. However, the extent to which climate policy could contribute to the targets of reducing existing pollution disparities across different populations remains largely unknown. We quantify potential air pollution exposure reductions under U.S. federal carbon policy, considering implications of resulting health benefits for exposure disparities across U.S. racial/ethnic groups.
We focus on policy cases that achieve reductions of 40-60% in 2030 economy-wide carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, when compared with 2005 emissions. The 50% CO2 reduction ... Read more ...
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Scenario Discovery Analysis of Drivers of Solar and Wind Energy Transitions Through 2050 - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Sep 18) |
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Sep 18 · Authors' Summary: There are many systems involved in energy transitions, which makes it difficult to anticipate which factors are most likely to result in higher renewable energy adoption in the future, and the currently available projections of future renewable shares are highly uncertain.
We focus here on wind and solar energy in particular, and use a model that represents a variety of the different systems involved (including energy, agriculture, land use, and water) to create a set of nearly 4,000 scenarios that span a wide range of possible futures. Each scenario is driven by a combination of different parameter inputs chosen based on factors that we expect to impact wind ... Read more ...
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Compendium Volume: Climate-Resilient Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Sep 12) |
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Sep 12 · Authors' Summary: This Compendium Volume presents a series of guidance notes and more detailed complementary technical notes that offer practical insights in support of enhancing the climate resilience of infrastructure investment projects in Sub-Saharan Africa. This first introductory chapter starts with an overview of the investment conditions and climatic context in the region, followed by a description of the scope of this Compendium Volume and individual notes, target audiences, and a roadmap for users of the contents covered in this Volume.
Strzepek, K., Brent Boehlert, et al. (main contributors)
Authors' Summary: This Compendium Volume presents a series of ... Read more ...
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COMMENTARY: Health effects of a global carbon price - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Aug 9) |
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Aug 9 · Abstract: Reducing greenhouse gases can benefit air quality and health overall, but the magnitude and distribution of these benefits remain uncertain. Now a study shows that while air quality gains from carbon policies are widespread, some regions could see pollution increases.
Selin, N.E.
Abstract: Reducing greenhouse gases can benefit air quality and health overall, but the magnitude and distribution of these benefits remain uncertain. Now a study shows that while air quality gains from carbon policies are widespread, some regions could see pollution increases.
MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change Massachusetts Institute of Technology • ... Read more ...
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Emissions and energy impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Jun 29) |
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Jun 29 · Abstract: If goals set under the Paris Agreement are met, the world may hold warming well below 2°C; however, parties are not on track to deliver these commitments, increasing focus on policy implementation to close the gap between ambition and action. Recently, the US government passed its most prominent piece of climate legislation to date - the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) - designed to invest in a wide range of programs that, among other provisions, incentivize clean energy and carbon management, encourage electrification and efficiency measures, reduce methane emissions, promote domestic supply chains, and address environmental justice concerns. IRA’s scope and ... Read more ...
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Assessing the performance of backscattering-based phytoplankton carbon algorithms. Global Biogeochemical Cycles - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Jun 27) |
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Jun 27 · Authors' Summary: Phytoplankton contribute roughly half of the photosynthesis on earth and fuel fisheries around the globe. Yet, few direct measurements of phytoplankton concentration are available. Frequently, concentrations of phytoplankton are instead estimated using the optical properties of water. Backscattering is one of these optical properties, representing the light being scattered backwards. Previous studies have suggested that backscattering could be a good method to estimate phytoplankton concentration. However, other particles that are present in the ocean also contribute to backscattering.
In this paper we examine how well backscattering can be used to estimate ... Read more ...
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Challenges and opportunities in connecting gene count observations with ocean biogeochemical models: Reply to Zehr and Riemann (2023) - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Jun 27) |
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Jun 27 · Abstract: As authors of Meiler et al. (2022), we welcome Zehr and Riemann's (2023) comment and discussion. We agree, of course, with the general statement that “quantification of gene copy numbers is valuable in marine microbial ecology” and wish to clarify that one of the purposes of Meiler et al. (2022) was to address the specific challenge of using a compilation of quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) nifH data to evaluate the skill of biogeochemical models. In that particular case, the data were most helpful in constraining the range of diazotrophs, but several sources of uncertainty limited more detailed quantitative evaluations. This was not intended to imply a lack ... Read more ...
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Assessing the performance of backscattering-based phytoplankton carbon algorithms - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Jun 23) |
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Jun 23 · Authors' Summary: Phytoplankton contribute roughly half of the photosynthesis on earth and fuel ?sheries around the globe. Yet, few direct measurements of phytoplankton concentration are available. Frequently, concentrations of phytoplankton are instead estimated using the optical properties of water. Backscattering is one of these optical properties, representing the light being scattered backwards. Previous studies have suggested that backscattering could be a good method to estimate phytoplankton concentration. However, other particles that are present in the ocean also contribute to backscattering. In this paper we examine how well backscattering can be used to estimate ... Read more ...
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Global climate-change trends detected in indicators of ocean ecology - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Jun 21) |
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Jun 21 · Abstract: Strong natural variability has been thought to mask possible climate-change-driven trends in phytoplankton populations from Earth-observing satellites. More than 30 years of continuous data were thought to be needed to detect a trend driven by climate change.
Here we show that climate-change trends emerge more rapidly in ocean colour (remote-sensing reflectance, R) because R is multivariate and some wavebands have low interannual variability. We analyse a 20-year R time series from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Aqua satellite, and find significant trends in R for 56% of the global surface ocean, mainly equatorward of ... Read more ...
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Natural Climate Solutions must embrace multiple perspectives to ensure synergy with sustainable development - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Jun 12) |
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Jun 12 · Abstract: To limit global warming to well below 2°C, immediate emissions reductions must be coupled with active removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. 'Natural Climate Solutions’ (NCS) achieve atmospheric CO2 reduction through the conservation, restoration or altered management of natural ecosystems with enormous potential to deliver 'win-win-win’ outcomes for climate, nature and society. Yet the supply of high-quality NCS projects does not meet market demand, and projects already underway often fail to deliver their promised benefits, due to a complex set of interacting ecological, social and financial constraints. How can these cross-sectoral challenges be ... Read more ...
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Designing climate policy mixes: Analytical and energy system modeling approaches - MIT - Global Change -Publications (May 04, 2023) |
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May 04, 2023 · The efficiency benefit of carbon pricing exhibits diminishing marginal returns.
Modest carbon pricing delivers relatively large efficiency improvements.
Partial reliance on clean energy standards entails a relatively small efficiency loss.
Policy mixes combining standards and pricing can be near-cost-optimal.
Policy mixes allow policy makers to leverage the distinct advantages of each policy.
A matter of debate in climate policy is whether lawmakers should rely on carbon pricing or regulations, such as low-carbon standards, to reach emission reduction goals. Past research showed that pricing is more cost-effective. However, previous work studied the two ... Read more ...
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Biogeochemical River Runoff Drives Intense Coastal Arctic Ocean CO2 Outgassing - MIT - Global Change -Publications (May 02, 2023) |
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May 02, 2023 · Arctic warming alters land-to-sea fluxes of nutrients and organic matter, which impact air-sea carbon exchange. Here we use an ocean-biogeochemical model of the southeastern Beaufort Sea (SBS) to investigate the role of Mackenzie River biogeochemical discharge in modulating air-sea CO2 fluxes during 2000–2019. The contribution of six biogeochemical discharge constituents leads to a net CO2 outgassing of 0.13 TgC yr-1, with a decrease in the coastal SBS carbon sink of 0.23 and 0.4 TgC yr-1 due to riverine dissolved organic and inorganic carbon, respectively. Years with high (low) discharge promote more CO2 outgassing (uptake) from the river plume. These results demonstrate that the ... Read more ...
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Thermal Responses in Global Marine Planktonic Food Webs Are Mediated by Temperature Effects on Metabolism - MIT - Global Change -Publications (May 02, 2023) |
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May 02, 2023 · Rising ocean temperatures affect marine microbial ecosystems directly, since metabolic rates (e.g., photosynthesis, respiration) are temperature-dependent, but temperature also has indirect effects mediated through changes to the physical environment. Empirical observations of the long-term trends in biomass and productivity measure the integrated response of these two kinds of effects, making the independent components difficult to disentangle. We used a combination of modeling approaches to isolate the direct effects of rising temperatures on microbial metabolism and explored the consequences for food web dynamics and global biogeochemistry. We evaluated the effects of temperature ... Read more ...
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Net Zero Emissions of Greenhouse Gases by 2050: Achievable and at What Cost? - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Apr 20, 2023) |
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Apr 20, 2023 · Abstract: About 140 countries have announced or are considering net zero targets. To explore the implications of such targets, we apply an integrated earth system–economic model to investigate illustrative net zero emissions scenarios.
Given the technologies as characterized in our modeling framework, we find that with net zero targets, afforestation in earlier years and biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) technology in later years are important negative emissions technologies, allowing continued emissions from hard-to-reduce sectors and sources.
With the entire world achieving net zero by 2050 a very rapid scale-up of BECCS is required, increasing ... Read more ...
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Variable renewable energy deployment in low-emission scenarios: the role of technology cost and value - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Apr 08, 2023) |
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Apr 08, 2023 · Electricity competition in the EPPA model is modified to represent technology value.
Representing the value of technology alongside cost impacts VRE deployment.
When VRE costs are varied by ~ 35%, VRE share spans IPCC “lower 2C” scenario range.
VRE costs affect the demand for electricity, final energy and primary energy.
Demand for fuels other than electricity is relatively insensitive to VRE assumptions.
Abstract: While rapid deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies, namely wind and solar PV, is often projected in 2C pathways generated by integrated assessment models, there is a wide range in projected VRE deployment by mid-century. ... Read more ...
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Influence of forest infrastructure on the responses of ecosystem services to climate extremes in the Midwest and Northeast United States from 1980 to 2019 - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Mar 28, 2023) |
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Mar 28, 2023 · Forests provide several critical ecosystem services that help to support human society. Alteration of forest infrastructure by changes in land use, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change influence the ability of forests to provide these ecosystem services and their sensitivity to existing and future extreme climate events. Here, we explore how the evolving forest infrastructure of the Midwest and Northeast United States influences carbon sequestration, biomass increment (i.e., change in vegetation carbon), biomass burning associated with fuelwood and slash removal, the creation of wood products, and runoff between 1980 and 2019 within the context of changing environmental ... Read more ...
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Clean energy transition in the Turkish power sector: A techno-economic analysis with a high-resolution power expansion model - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Mar 21, 2023) |
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Mar 21, 2023 · Abstract: The Turkish power sector achieved rapid growth after the 1990s in line with economic growth and beyond. However, domestic resources did not support this development and therefore resulted in a high dependency on imported fossil fuels. Furthermore, the governments were slow off the mark in introducing policies for increasing the share of renewable energy. Even late actions of the governments, as well as significant decreases in the cost of wind and especially solar technologies, have recently brought the Turkish power sector into a promising state.
Author's Highlights:
• A large-scale generation expansion power system model with a high temporal resolution ... Read more ...
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Responding to the Climate Threat: Essays on Humanity’s Greatest Challenge - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Mar 14, 2023) |
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Mar 14, 2023 · Authors' Summary: This book demonstrates how robust and evolving science can be relevant to public discourse about climate policy. Fighting climate change is the ultimate societal challenge, and the difficulty is not just in the wrenching adjustments required to cut greenhouse emissions and to respond to change already under way. A second and equally important difficulty is ensuring widespread public understanding of the natural and social science. This understanding is essential for an effective risk management strategy at a planetary scale. The scientific, economic, and policy aspects of climate change are already a challenge to communicate, without factoring in the distractions ... Read more ...
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Influence of forest infrastructure on the responses of ecosystem services to climate extremes in the Midwest and Northeast United States from 1980 to 2019 - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Mar 09, 2023) |
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Mar 09, 2023 · Abstract: Forests provide several critical ecosystem services that help to support human society. Alteration of forest infrastructure by changes in land use, atmospheric chemistry, and climate change influence the ability of forests to provide these ecosystem services and their sensitivity to existing and future extreme climate events. Here, we explore how the evolving forest infrastructure of the Midwest and Northeast United States influences carbon sequestration, biomass increment (i.e., change in vegetation carbon), biomass burning associated with fuelwood and slash removal, the creation of wood products, and runoff between 1980 and 2019 within the context of changing ... Read more ...
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Pumped-hydro storage plants influencing the optimal hourly dispatch in hydro-thermal systems with massive integration of variable renewable energy - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Mar 06, 2023) |
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Mar 06, 2023 · Abstract: This article evaluates the optimum economic hourly dispatch in hydro-thermal systems with massive integration of variable renewable energy, wind and solar. A linear optimization model, Elemod, makes it feasible to analyze the power system operation with hourly time step, taking into account one year of planning horizon much larger than the weekly horizon that usually sets the hydro-thermal scheduling studies. We propose an alternative formulation for pumped-hydro storage, in a way that the total annual system cost is minimized with the co-optimization of the hourly PHS operation cost.
To illustrate the methodology and modelling application, presenting a real system ... Read more ...
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Nuclear Power Generation Phaseouts Redistribute U.S. Air Quality and Climate Related Mortality Risk - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Jan 25, 2023) |
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Jan 25, 2023 · Abstract: Nuclear power use in the United States is projected to decline over the coming decades. We explore how nuclear phase-outs could affect air pollution, climate, and health with both existing and alternative grid infrastructure. We develop an energy grid dispatch model to estimate the emissions of CO2, NOx, and SO2 from each electricity generating unit, coupling these emissions with a chemical transport model to calculate impacts on ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5).
Our yearlong scenario removing nuclear power results in compensation by coal, gas, and oil, leading to increased emissions. We find the resulting changes in PM2.5 and ozone lead to an ... Read more ...
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Rapid estimation of climate-air quality interactions in integrated assessment using a response surface model - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Jan 24, 2023) |
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Jan 24, 2023 · Abstract: Air quality and climate change are substantial and linked sustainability challenges, and there is a need for improved tools to assess the implications of addressing these challenges together. Due to the high computational cost of accurately assessing these challenges, integrated assessment models (IAMs) used in policy development often use global- or regional-scale marginal response factors to calculate air quality impacts of climate scenarios.
We bridge the gap between IAMs and high-fidelity simulation by developing a computationally-efficient approach to quantify how combined climate and air quality interventions affect air quality outcomes, including capturing ... Read more ...
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Rigby, M.: A renewed rise in global HCFC-141b emissions between 2017–2021 - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Dec 06, 2022) |
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Dec 06, 2022 · Authors' Summary: The production of ozone-destroying gases is being phased out. Even though production of one of the main ozone-depleting gases, called HCFC-141b, has been declining for many years, the amount that is being released to the atmosphere has been increasing since 2017. We do not know for sure why this is. A possible explanation is that HCFC-141b that was used to make insulating foams many years ago is only now escaping to the atmosphere, or a large part of its production is not being reported.
Abstract: Global emissions of the ozone-depleting gas HCFC-141b (1,1-dichloro-1-fluoroethane, CH3CCl2F) derived from measurements of atmospheric mole fractions increased ... Read more ...
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Evaluating atmospheric mercury (Hg) uptake by vegetation in a chemistry-transport model - MIT - Global Change -Publications (Nov 28, 2022) |
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Nov 28, 2022 · Authors' Summary: Vegetation uptake is one of largest sinks of atmospheric mercury (Hg) from the atmosphere and a major source of Hg to soils. We better quantify its importance to the global biogeochemical Hg cycle by updating an atmospheric chemistry model with information from newly available measurement datasets.
Our revised dry deposition scheme yields improved model agreement with atmospheric Hg seasonality in Northern midlatitudes and Hg concentrations in South America.
We calculate a dry deposition flux to land that is approximately double previous model estimates. Using our revised model, we also illustrate the potential importance of land-atmosphere feedbacks: ... Read more ...
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