Stay in the know about climate impacts and solutions. Subscribe to our newsletters. Stay in the know about climate impacts and solutions. Subscribe to our weekly newsletter. Yale Climate Connections Hurricane activity in the Atlantic typically ramps down sharply by the time late October rolls around. On average, only 14% of the Atlantic season’s activity occurs from October 15 onward (as measured by accumulated cyclone energy). This year may not be so quick to turn quiet, though. One disturbance will be approaching the Leeward Islands by late week and another may take shape in the western Caribbean a few days from now. The hyperactive Atlantic season of 2020 is a relevant reminder of what late October and November can do in a warming climate. Three major hurricanes roiled the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico after October 15, with another (Epsilon) in the northwest Atlantic. Zeta, Eta, and Iota each made landfall in the Caribbean, and Zeta and Eta went on to strike the U.S. Gulf Coast. Iota was the year’s last named Atlantic storm; it’s also the last storm that will bear a Greek-letter name in the Atlantic, as the “overflow” list of Greek letters (created for use when a season had already gone through all 21 of its assigned names but not adopted with name retirements in mind) was replaced by a new supplemental list in 2021. A strengthening La Niña event in 2020 helped nurture the late-season activity, as did unusually warm sea surface temperatures. This October, La Niña appears to be taking shape once more, and despite the recent raging of Helene and Milton, the average sea surface temperature across the Gulf of Mexico remains at record warmth for the date. The Atlantic has certainly been active since the climatological midpoint of the season (around September 10), bringing a year that had fallen behind the usual pace solidly into the busier-than-average category. So far this year, the Atlantic has had 13... |