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| Table 2.2 | The assessed remaining carbon budget and its uncertainties.![](http://ccdatacenter.org/images/Standard/Table22Theassessedremainingcarbonbudgeta4902.png) Shaded blue horizontal bands illustrate the uncertainty in historical temperature increase from the 1850–1900 base period until the 2006–2015 period as estimated from global near-surface air temperatures, which impacts the additional arming until a specific temperature limit like 1.5°C or 2°C relative to the 1850–1900 period. Shaded grey cells indicate values for when historical temperature increase is estimated from a blend of near-surface air temperatures over land and sea ice regions and sea-surface temperatures over oceans. | | | |
IPCC 1.5° C Report | Table 2.2 | The assessed remaining carbon budget and its uncertainties. | ![](http://ccdatacenter.org/images/Standard/Table22Theassessedremainingcarbonbudgeta4902.png) Shaded blue horizontal bands illustrate the uncertainty in historical temperature increase from the 1850–1900 base period until the 2006–2015 period as estimated from global near-surface air temperatures, which impacts the additional arming until a specific temperature limit like 1.5°C or 2°C relative to the 1850–1900 period. Shaded grey cells indicate values for when historical temperature increase is estimated from a blend of near-surface air temperatures over land and sea ice regions and sea-surface temperatures over oceans. Notes: *(1) Chapter 1 has assessed historical warming between the 1850–1900 and 2006–2015 periods to be 0.87°C with a ±0.12°C likely (1-standard deviation) range, and global near-surface air temperature to be 0.97°C. The temperature changes from the 2006–2015 period are expressed in changes of global near-surface air temperature. *(2) Historical CO2 emissions since the middle of the 1850–1900 historical base period (mid-1875) are estimated at 1940 GtCO2 (1640–2240 GtCO2, one standard deviation range) until end 2010. Since 1 January 2011, an additional 290 GtCO2 (270–310 GtCO2 , one sigma range) has been emitted until the end of 2017 (Le Quéré et al., 2018). *(3) TCRE: transient climate response to cumulative emissions of carbon, assessed by AR5 to fall likely between 0.8–2.5°C/1000 PgC (Collins et al., 2013), considering a normal distribution consistent with AR5 (Stocker et al., 2013). Values are rounded to the nearest 10 GtCO2 . *(4) Focussing on the impact of various key uncertainties on median budgets for 0.53°C of additional warming. *(5) Earth system feedbacks include CO2 released by permafrost thawing or methane released by wetlands, see main text. *(6) Variations due to different scenario assumptions related to the future evolution of non-CO2 emissions. *(7) The distribution of TCRE is not precisely defined. Here the influence of assuming a lognormal instead of a normal distribution shown. *(8) Historical emissions uncertainty reflects the uncertainty in historical emissions since 1 January 2011. | | URL: https://www.ipcc.ch/site/assets/uploads/sites/2/2019/05/SR15_Chapter2_Low_Res.pdf |
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