No. Even if emissions of greenhouse gases were to suddenly stop, Earth’s surface temperature would not cool and return to the level in the pre-industrial era for thousands of years.

Where does all the methane go?

Methane is emitted from multiple sources, mostly from land, and accumulates in the atmosphere. In our greenhouse gas budgets, we look at two important numbers.

First, we look at emissions (which activities are producing greenhouse gases).

Second, we look at where this gas ends up. The important quantity here is the accumulation (concentration) of methane in the atmosphere, which leads to global warming. The accumulation results from the difference between total emissions and the destruction of methane in the atmosphere and uptake by soil bacteria.

CO2 emissions take centre stage in most discussions to limit climate change. The focus is well justified, given that CO2 is responsible for more than 80% of global warming due to greenhouse gases. The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere (now around 400 parts per million) has risen by 44% since the Industrial Revolution (around the year 1750).

While CO2 in the atmosphere has increased

Methane concentrations in the atmosphere are growing faster than any time in the past 20 years. The increase is largely driven by the growth in food production, according to the Global Methane Budget released today. Methane is contributing less to global warming than carbon dioxide (CO2), but it is a very powerful greenhouse gas.

Since 2014, methane concentrations in the atmosphere have begun to track the most carbon-intensive pathways developed for the 21st century by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

The growth of methane emissions from human activities comes at a time when CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels have stalled over the past three years.

If these trends continue, methane growth could become a dangerous climate wildcard, overwhelming efforts to reduce CO2 in the short term.
Climate Facts

Methane


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Table 2.2 | The assessed remaining carbon budget and its uncertainties.

Shaded blue horizontal bands illustrate the uncertainty in historical temperature increase from the 1850–1900 base period until the 2006–2015 period as estimated from global near-surface air temperatures, which impacts the additional arming until a specific temperature limit like 1.5°C or 2°C relative to the 1850–1900 period. Shaded grey cells indicate values for when historical temperature increase is estimated from a blend of near-surface air temperatures over land and sea ice regions and sea-surface temperatures over oceans.