Change in average surface temperature (1986-2005 and 2081-2100)

If one looks at the facts and observations of global warming, it is only possible to conclude that the Earth is warming and that humans are primarily responsible. Therefore the only “unknowns” are how much the Earth is likely to warm both in the near term and in the long term and how the climate is likely to change. The “near term” forecast is not promising, particularly since there is not even a hint that global leaders are taking the problem seriously.

U.S. forests currently serve as a carbon 'sink', offsetting approximately 13% of U.S. emissions from burning fossil fuels in 2011

Fossil fuels are abundant in many regions of the world and they are in sufficient quantities to meet expected increasing demands. However, most of them are still classified as resources and not yet as reserves. This distinction is important as it reflects the likelihood that the fossil fuels will be brought to the market. Resources are those volumes that have yet to be fully characterised, or that present technical difficulties or are costly to extract, for example where technologies that permit their extraction in an environmentally sound and cost- effective manner are still to be developed. Reserves are those volumes that are expected to be produced economically using today's technology; they are often associated with a project that is already well-defined or ongoing. As the more accessible, conventional supplies are exhausted, so more technically demanding resources will need to be exploited

The climate models have done a good job of estimating the global temperature increase

Some questions about the role of ENSO in setting records in annual s. We know the El Niño warms the global mean, La Niña cools it, but what happens when statistically correct for that?

Figure 2.20. Change in surface air temperature at the end of this century (2081-2100) relative to the turn of the last century (1986-2005) on the coldest and hottest days under a scenario that assumes a rapid reduction in heat trapping gases (RCP 2.6) and a scenario that assumes continued increases in these gases (RCP 8.5). This figure shows estimated changes in the average temperature of the hottest and coldest days in each 20-year period. In other words, the hottest days will get even hotter, and the coldest days will be less cold. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC).

Figure 2.3. Observed global average changes (black line), model simulations using only changes in natural factors (solar and volcanic) in green, and model simulations with the addition of human-induced emissions (blue). Climate changes since 1950 cannot be explained by natural factors or variability, and can only be explained by human factors. (Figure source: adapted from Huber and Knutti29).

Climate Facts

Cheaspeake Data Systems

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